Categorie: IPO / Secondary Offering
Submitted 7 months ago by
Ziad
, President & CEO
at Blackhawk Partners, Inc
It seems that everyone these days has an opinion on the recession. Some claim the worst is over and the economy is on a slow path toward recovery, others say things haven't begun to turn around yet. (There's even a third group that denies the U.S. economy is even in a recession.) I am convinced that the economy is not only in a recession, but that the worst is still ahead of us rather than behind. You just have to look at the housing numbers for proof. Just recently we saw another drop of more than 11 percent in housing starts. What's more, the excess supply of new, unsold homes is still rising. Only by the end of the year will the decline in starts begin to show up. Right now, they're still way too high.They have to fall significantly below new home sales — about another 20 percent — to start reducing the excess supply of new homes and for the housing market to stabilize. I also think we should expect to see home prices decline another 10 percent in 2008 for a cumulative fall of about 25 percent to 30 percent. The excess supply of both existing and new homes will worsen in 2008 for a variety of other reasons. For starters, the credit crunch has led to a collapse of origination of subprime and Alt-A mortgages. That means consumers with weak credit ratings who were able to qualify for mortgages during the boom won't be able to get loans. It also means that homeowners who cannot r...
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Submitted 7 months ago by
Ziad
, President & CEO
at Blackhawk Partners, Inc
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