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Vt_black_best_image VTCastle's review
Investment Sector: Equities
Submitted by Vtcastle contact me
over 2 years ago
Tags: wireless technology AMX VIP VSL
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Global Telecom: 3 Emerging Market Plays with Massive Upside! [ Login to Propose An Edit ]





/images/0000/0337/cassiope.jpgThe wireless telecom revolution of the late 20th century has no doubt been one of the great global paradigm shifts since World War II. It doesn't rank as high as the internet, penicillin or dare I say – Viagra. However, wireless telecom is a technology that has changed, and will continue to change the way we interact with our fellow mankind.

Initially, mobile phones were a  hulking piece of plastic with horrible reception. Now its 10 millimeter thick, full color touch screen with download/upload speeds that seem to  double every year. Quite amazing to think the technology has matured as quickly as it has, and as a certifiable technology addict, I'm chomping at the bit for each tidbit of news. 

Next time you catch yourself marveling at your newest gadget, consider the unlimited potential that wireless technology offers when viewed on the global scale.  If you can't, take a look at how William Shatner and Star Trek changed the world.

Whether you are in a remote location in Mexico on a road trip that went off track, or hiking through the scenic back country of Thailand, chances are its going to be difficult to find a traditional land based telephone. So as a govermental leader looking to provide communications for your nation, or a CEO looking to cut infrastructure costs, building a completely wireless telecom system is ostensibly the way to go. Not only can you save capital by avoiding investment of traditional land line systems, but their eventual replacement by wireless networks is a realistic possibly. Case in point, the major American landline companies like AT&T or Verizon rushing to grab as much of the wireless market as possible in the mid 1990s. Its not a question of “will it happen,” but more appropriately “when will it completely dominate the world?”

This article highlights 3 global wireless telecom companies that will play a key role in connecting our world through satellite based communications. They have either been in place for several years, or just beginning to show up in the emerging markets with immense growth potential. Thus, I have purposely excluded what I deemed markets that are near saturation points, such as the USA, Australia, most of western Europe (some Eastern to), and Japan.

 

/images/0000/0323/America_Movil_2.jpg<u>America Movil S.A.B de C.V. (ADR)</u>

America Movil (NYSE: AMX) is the dominant wireless telecom company in Central and South America. Based in Mexico, this 69.5 Billion dollar company controls 70% of the wireless market in Mexico as well as a growing market share in 15 other counties throughout Central and South America. It has aggressively pursued acquisitions such as Oceanic Digital Jamaica and Compania Dominicana de Telefonos in Puerto Rico during 2007. It currently maintains a massive number of subscribers at a total of 147 million and growing.

/images/0000/0325/AMX_-_3_year.pngCurrent estimates project a growth rate of 35% for 2008 and 32% over the next 5 years, which would outperform its industry competitors on a percentage basis of 40% and 50% respectively.

Mexico alone has an annual increase in wireless subscribers of 50%, so AMX is well positioned to take advantage of this. As of now, very little penetration of wireless internet has been achieved and this will undoubtedly grow thanks to Apple's Iphone and Research in Motion's Blackberry (aka – Crackberry).

AMX has traded sideways for the last year, but at a price of $59 its a steal now that the P/E ratio is in the low 20s. Especially when AMX has a 5 year average Return on Investment 8 times higher than its industry competitors (19.1 vs. 2.4).


<u>Vimpel-Communications (ADR)</u>

/images/0000/0327/vimpelcom.gif

Vimpel-Communications (NYSE: VIP) is the largest wireless telecom provider by market cap in Russia, and the majority of the former satellite countries from the former Soviet Union. However, it has fewer subscribers than rival Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (NYSE: MBT), but appears to be gaining ground in this category.

/images/0000/0329/VIP_-_3_year.pngVIP has sought to strengthen its telecom position by adding value to its services portfolio, namely in the areas of business related services. Announcing today that it has agreed to purchase Golden Telecom (NASDAQ: GLDN), which provides broadband connectivity via fixed land systems (fiber optics) and mobile (satellites) based systems for faster voice and data devices. The approach is obviously to gain market share by providing a superior product portfolio to business customers and the net savvy citizen.

Looking at the financials for VIP, one has to be IN AWE of the stock performance. Forget Google, how about a near 500% return on your money in 3 years time, which outperformed Google's 250% over the same 3 year time period. Shockingly, VIP is still cheap with a P/E ratio around 33 it isn't exactly cheap, but the forward P/E is around 13, so you're paying a little extra for all that potential growth. Speaking of which, the growth estimates for 2008 is 39% thus far, which is 50% greater than its industry competitors. This hasn't yet calculated the additional revenue that Golden Telecom should bring in so its quite possible that growth will exceed the prognostications this year in the earnings year.

Matter of fact, Ken Heeber of the CGM Focus fund and Morningstar's top fund manager of 2007 has a substantial state in VIP having a whopping 6% of the funds assets in this one company. Heebner coming on board with his past success is a very bullish sign for those who are currently on the fence. Checkout one of Heebner's latest interviews from CNBC on his core holdings of his 5 star CGM Focus Fund discussing VIP as well as Petrobras (NYSE: PBR).


/images/0000/0331/VSL_logo.png

<u>Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited (ADR)</u>

Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited (NYSE: VSL) doesn't quite fit the mold of a pure play wireless provider, but VSL encompasses a growing telecom company in all aspects of a rapidly growing dominant power. By covering several aspects of India's telecom market, VSL offers a diverse opportunity for the entire India telecom market as well as being a player in the global markets by having acquired Teleglobe in 2006.  Specifically, it has strategically placed assets in Western Europe, South America and Southeast Asia. 

/images/0000/0333/VSL_-_3_year.pngVSL is building a core infrastructure to permanently secure its place as a high speed information provider. Its currently constructing two massive telecom cable systems to Southeast Asia and Europe at a total cost of $550 million dollars to supply its growing portfolio of user based products such as internet telephony (VoIP) and Wi-Fi hotspots which attract the everyday consumer as well as the growing businesses seeking enhanced connectivity. As of December 2007, VSL has a subscriber list of 500,000 customers and with recent deals like teaming up with Marshall Media to provide streaming Video on Demand (VOD) its appeal among users will only grow.

VSL earnings history has been unstable at best, but the current outlook is that the company will turn itself around to be a bigtime revenue generator. With sales doubling from 2006 to 2007, it presents a generous opportunity for share price appreciation over the long term. In addition to being a state owned company, its doubtful that the Indian government will be liquidating its shares in the future plus any potential preferences to invest nationally versus internationally when a foreign corporation pursues interests similar to those of VSL.

My estimation is that with a strong broadband product portfolio, the broadband wireless markets will be a viable new investment now and many years to come for VSL. Being that India has a low cell phone per citizen ratio, the selection of a new generation wireless device could likely be the first mobile phone purchased by many of India's growing middle class.

 

Disclaimer: Author does not own stock in any of the companies mentioned prior to publishing (Jan 11, 2008).  As always, this is for informational use only and should not be endorsed as a professional recommendation.

 

 


 




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