|
tvdovichenko's review
Investment Sector: Funds Submitted by Tvdovichenko
9 months ago Add Tag |
The collapse of stock markets and recession of quotations are reasons for thinking about possible purchase of assets became cheaper. For example, nowadays Russian “blue chips” cost at 20% cheaper than a week ago. Besides the biggest companies’ shares among leaders of investing attractiveness futures contract for gold, which is the last instance in periods of market turbulence.
Unplanned checking.
In the middle of December 2007 it was seemed that financial crisis was stopped at the world markets and a new wave of stock markets' recession of indexes didn’t come. USA and Europe showed consolatory macroeconomic statistics, and representatives of money authorities declared hoping notes about impossibility of recession in USA.
But on the contrary of these wishes, in the end of December leading world financial institutes published whitepapers of IV quarter. It is common knowledge that nobody can be imprisoned for his/her smiles but it’s possible to do for the falsification of the corporate reports. That’s why members of markets were able to look through the real facts of loss. Promulgated facts were really horrible: if Merrill Lynch demonstrated writing off $7.9 billion for IV quarter and Citigroup informed about loss of $10 billion, the general public could only to suppose conditions of less reliable banks.
The world stock indexes fell down, for instance Dow Jones began slowly reducing to 100 points a day (0.7-0.8%) from the end of December. Russian market didn’t pay much attention to the total dynamic of quotations, but volatility was very high in fact - to 5% per 1 trade session.
The crisis started on January 15, 2008, when macro economical statistics from USA reflected essential reducing of the population’s expenses in December, the time of the holidays sales. Rumors about coming recession blazed again, and Dow Jones lost 280 points (2.3%) per 1 trade session.
Next days waves of crisis raised to the world markets and January, 21 reached Russia, - per 1 trading session the index lost record 7.38% (2000 points). So we can fix, that Russian market resisted to the outside influence for a long time and it was not outside of the world economical processes.
In fact, at the same day, January 28, 2008, Japanese index Nikkei fell down to 752 points (about 6% - the record of last 10 years). The government of Japan noted that they were going to consult USA because the reason of collapse at all world markets is the American crisis of the mortgage system. True, Dow Jones didn’t pay attention to the Japanese alerts of January 21, 2008 and lost only 128 points (1.1%).
Russian "blue chips" suffered more than other securities. Per 4 trade session from January 16, 2008 Russian market lost about 15%, but "blue chips" fell down more than 20%. No wonder that from the beginning of 2008 foreign investors had been reducing domestic securities, and to the middle of January 28, 2008 the disposals came up to maximum. So, you were able to notice in selling investing funds, which left Russian market per August and October crisis and had time to come back, and being ones.
Present changes of strategy are clear and connected to the huge sizes of the world markets reducing. Incurring losses in different segments of the world market investors were forced to sell securities for long-term profit. And Russian "blue chips" were not included to their totals and their mass selling stimulates new waves of reducing at domestic markets.
Step forward and two steps back.
American money authorities tried to assume the urgent measures to crisis and recession of the national economy. Therewith experts propose only 2 ways of treatment. January 17, 2008 George Bush made public the strategy of the struggle to crisis. According to the document’s points, 1% of national produce is planned to spend for current problems of financial system. Funds will be used for reducing the taxes of population and corporations and for encouragement of real estate building. USA government is going to shorten the term for green card receiving for emigrants if they are building own dwelling during this time. But it is in perspective.
Nowadays the main measures are reduction the rate of Fed. January 8, 2008 it was informed about subsequent the rate of interest reducing. Members of market began to talk about the level of reducing, but the sharp drop of market amended – the Fed rate was reduced to 0.75% (to 3.5%) on January 22, 2008. So, we see the Fed rate fell down to 1.75% on a half a year.
Some experts are aiming very radical. For example, a famous American financier George Soros, noted in Davos on January 23, 2008, that being crisis is not caused by the estate falling down, but this is the end of the system of credits and Dollar as the reserve currency. And nowadays other countries don’t want to accumulate dollars.
Statistic improved the words of the financial guru. Under the report of International Monetary Fund, published on January 21, 2008, central banks shorten the part of dollars in reserve to 65% in IV quarter.
It’s time for purchasing.
The collapse of stock markets can influence to the sceneries of Russian and world economy. Before crisis the main tendency was assets’ inflation. In the world economy excess of liquidity was formed, which supported the rising up of the world prices to energy resource and metal, and increasing pf the stock markets in emerging countries. Russian stock market also took part in this process and in 2004-2006 rose on the background of excess of liquidity and developed economics.
If markets continue to reduce and USA economy fell down to recession, emerging markets can loose their liquidity. In addition, reducing of prices to main Russian export goods – energy resources and metal – will hurt to domestic economy. Also it can be caused by shorten demand for these goods in developed countries.
We can see similar experience at Japanese economy. Reducing of discount rate doesn’t guarantee that economy is not under stagnation. As known, discount rate is the lowest in this country - 1%. At that time Japan doesn't demonstrate outstanding results of the economical growth.
But Russian members of market and representatives are not pessimistic nowadays. We can even say about optimism and wishing to take part in honorable saving the earth. For example, January 23, 2008 at the International Economical Forum in Davos the minister of finance Aleksey Kudrin noted, that Russia as the country with huge reserves can take part in the world crisis. Also Russia can be attractive for investing foreign capitals. At that time now Russia really can't be as stabilizer of the world economy, rather India and China can play such role.
If Kudrin's opinion is right, present crisis will not become the world recession. Level and demand for goods of Russian export, which was supported by odd liquidity of developed economics, can be provided by the Russian and Asian increasing. We can see these facts in prices to oil and gold in time of crisis.
So, “blue chips” become really attractive objects for investing.
Did you find this article useful?





