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Drdutta's review
Investment Sector: Emerging Markets Submitted by Drdutta
5 months ago Add Tag |
The 21st century may usher in a multi-polar world order, catalysed by the staggering economic success of two key regions that have been reshaping the global economic paradigm in recent years, much like Japan and the East Asian economies did from the sixties to the nineties.
China and India, or Chindia, will likely determine the contours of this world, now dominated by the economic might of the US and the European Union. If the burgeoning growth rates of these neighbouring economies are any indication, we could well be on the threshold of what many are calling, the ‘Asian Century’.
The facts are overwhelming. Chindia now represents two continental-sized economies with a total size exceeding $5 trillion, and growing at phenomenal speed; China grew by 11.4% and India by 9.6% in 2007. Their combined two billion plus populations (of which, the consuming middle-class represents the chunk), a relatively cheap yet skilled workforce, surging foreign exchange reserves and booming domestic companies with multinational appetites, are just pointers to its coming clout in the economic pecking order.
Given these realities, Chindia is already on a par with the US, the world’s largest economy, in certain respects. For instance, the two Asian giants already contribute 20% to the global gross domestic product growth, the same as that of the US. And by 2020, Chindia’s share in global growth is likely to go up to 40%, while the US’ share will hunker down to just 12-15%.
Incidentally, these Asian giants have achieved higher rates of growth for longer periods. For instance, between 1985 and 2005, Chindia recorded a growth of 5.3% per annum. This closely parallels that of Japan during 1960-85 and is only 1 percentage point less than what Korea and Taiwan achieved during 1970-95. The big difference, of course, has been that Chindia has had a population that was several times larger than Japan, Korea or Taiwan. Again, what will also help these two countries shape the Asian Century is their demographic profile. Remember, by 2020, India will be the youngest country in the world with around 547 million people below the age of 25, although China will have a much larger aging population.
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