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Drdutta's review
Investment Sector: Emerging Markets Submitted by Drdutta 
5 months ago Add Tag |
If you liken India's truck and commercial vehicles industry this year with a high stake round of famous card game, poker, the comparison wouldn’t be misplaced. For one, the central pot has a whopping Rs 13,174 crore—that’s how much money Indian and global manufacturers are pumping in to build fresh capacity and expand operations, largely over the next 24 months. This burst of investment will see the industry add fresh capacity of 600,000 trucks, at a time when total sales are at about half a million a year.
Second, their capacity plans are also coming into effect at a time when the industry has crawled during the last fiscal year at 4.85% and stagnated in the last six months (medium- and heavy-goods carriers, in fact, saw sales drop by 1% in the same period). The risk is compounded considering that the industry was not able to sell over 10% of its production in 2008 (excluding dealer inventories). With growing fears of a possible slowdown in the economy (transport freight has remained flat since January, after a 4-6% drop in December 2007), many are wondering if these mega-investments are being made at the wrong time of the economic cycle. Lastly, there are uncontrollable factors such as an unfavourable interest-rate regime and rising prices of inputs like steel. With more than 70% of a commercial vehicles cost depending on raw material prices, players could bleed in the face of competitive pricing, especially if there is a capacity glut.
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