Reliance Industries Limited

Industry

The Exploration and Production (E&P) industry witnessed yet another great year, driven largely by high commodity prices and robust oil and gas demand. Global demand for oil grew by 0.8% from 83.1 million barrels per day in 2005 to 83.8 million barrels per day in 2006.

IPE Brent prices averaged 10% higher at US$ 65 per barrel during FY 2006-07 as against an average price of US$ 59 per barrel in FY 2005-06. Natural gas prices in Asia and Europe which are predominantly linked to crude remained volatile and Henry hub natural gas prices averaged US$ 8 / MMBTU for 2006. Experts forecast gas prices to stay above historical levels in the near future.

Experts forecast gas prices to stay above historical levels in the near future.Fossil fuels are expected to remain the predominant energy source with about 80% share of energy demand globally. Oil and gas alone is expected to account for 54% of the projected demand. Alternative fuels are expected to grow rapidly but account for less than 2% of the energy demand in the foreseeable future. Global demand for oil is expected to grow at 1.3% annually while natural gas is expected to grow at about 2% per annum.

However, there are concerns regarding a concurrent growth in supply. This is primarily due to low levels of spare production capacity, declining number of large discoveries and geopolitical uncertainties.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its world energy outlook, has estimated investment requirements of over US$ 8.2 trillion over the next two decades in order to bridge the demand supply gap. This is substantially higher than its earlier forecast of US$ 5.3 trillion which underlines a positive demand outlook for energy.

Strong profitability and cash flows for E&P companies have spurred investments across the energy value chain globally resulting in severe supply chain pressures. However, the biggest global challenge for the E&P sector is the sharp increase in the cost of equipment and services (which have doubled in recent years) resulting in a steep increase in the cost of exploration and development. The major factors that have contributed to cost escalation are increase in costs of seismic services, drilling rigs and related services, engineering, fabrication and installation costs.

Over the past five years, the E&P industry has witnessed a significant growth in capital expenditure and the same trend is expected to continue in the medium term.During the year under review, India’s net import of crude oil and petroleum products grew by over 17% to an estimated US$ 39 billion, accounting for 20% of the total imports. Despite growing fears over the impact of rising inflation, experts forecast annual GDP growth of 8-9% over the next five years, thus boosting the energy demand even further.

Domestic crude oil production in India was slightly higher at 34 million tonnes and gas production stood at 1,120 BCF. India’s E&P industry has received a great impetus with the growing demand for crude oil and gas in the country and policy initiatives of the Government of India to prompt investment in E&P sector. Under the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) of the Government of India, 162 exploratory blocks have been acquired by participating companies. It is heartening to note that since the onset of NELP, there have been world-class discoveries that have considerably changed the prospectivity of India’s sedimentary basins.

The natural gas market is on a high growth trajectory. Natural gas accounts for 9% of total energy mix in India as against a global average of 21%. Its growth so far was constrained by limited availability and nascent transmission and distribution infrastructure. Following the large scale discoveries in the recent past and growing imports of LNG, supplies are expected to increase considerably. Pricing regime towards integration of domestic prices with global markets will be key to investments in this sector. Currently, deregulated gas accounts for 44% of India’s gas consumption but is expected to touch 70% by the end of the decade.

The regulatory framework too is evolving and is expected to be conducive for promoting investments in this sector of national importance. In pursuance to the PNGRB (Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board) Act, a regulatory body is proposed in order to provide the investment framework to market participants and investors. Significantly large projects are being planned by various players in creating a pan India gas grid which would improve connectivity and spur demand for natural gas. Growing availability will result to the contribution of natural gas in energy sector in India growing substantially.

Company Background

Reliance Industry Ltd (RIL) is the largest private sector undertaking in India. The company has presence in diverse businesses namely textiles, petrochemicals, oil & gas, retail and telecom. It has forayed into oil and gas exploration and marketing.

Financials

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) reported its financial performance for the half-year ended 30th September 2007. This was yet another eventful quarter for RIL including its all sectors.

RIL recorded a Net Profit increase by 31% to Rs. 7,467 crore (US$ 1.87 billion), Turnover increases by 9% to Rs. 64,692 crore (US$ 16.24 billion), Cash Profit increases by 20% to Rs. 10,223 crore (US$ 2.57 billion), Gross Refining Margin for 2Q FY 07-08 was at US$ 13.6 / bbl and for 1H FY 07-08 was US$14.5 / bbl and its Export cross US$ 9.30 billion, up by 11%. Within this quarter RIL acquired and signed agreement with Gulf African Petroleum Corp (GAPCO), East Africa and Hualon, a leading polyester producer in Malaysia.

During the period under review, RIL’s contribution to the national exchequer in the form of various taxes was Rs. 6,939 crore (US$ 1.74 billion).

During the half year period ended 30th September 2007, the refinery processed 16.1 million tonnes, an increase of 3%. It achieved an operating rate of 98%. Petrochemicals production grew by 7% to 9.8 million tonnes, against 9.1 million tonnes for the corresponding period of the previous year. Oil production from the PMT blocks increased by 24% to 305,000 tonnes and gas production increased by 42% to 678 MMSCM.

The outstanding debt as on 30th September 2007 was Rs 28,607 crore (US$ 7.18 billion) compared to Rs 27,826 crore as on 31st March 2007. Net gearing as on 30th September 2007 was 23.0% as compared to 25.2% on 31st March 2007.

RPL achieved over 70% overall progress in implementation of its large and complex refinery, coming up in the Special Economic Zone at Jamnagar and definitely ahead of schedule.

During the first half of the year, Panna-Mukta fields produced 942,000 MT of crude oil and 1,014 MMSCM of natural gas, an increase of 17% and 43% respectively as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Tapti also produced higher gas volumes of 1,248 MMSCM and 74,500 MT of condensate, registering a growth of 32% and 50% respectively over corresponding period of the previous year. In addition, declaration of commerciality for the new discovery in South-West Panna has been submitted to the DGH for its approval.

RIL also made significant discoveries named ‘Dhirubhai 33, 34, 35 and Dhirubhai 36. RIL also plans extensive seismic studies covering all major basins including 7 blocks awarded in NELP-VI. With a view to accelerating the exploration program, RIL has plans to mobilize four additional rigs of which one is expected in September 2008, two are expected to be operational by 3Q FY08, the fourth by 4Q FY08. Oil production is expected to commence in the second half of FY 2008-09 with an estimated peak production of 40,000 BOPD. In NEC25, the development plan has been submitted to the DGH for approval.

As the gas pricing and marketing is concerned, Reliance has already initiated the process of committing gas to the core fertilizer and power sectors. The Government has recently approved the pricing formula for sale of gas to be produced from KGD6; which results in the gas price of US$ 4.2 / MMBTU at crude price of US$ 60 / bbl or above, and in doing so has upheld the provisions of the PSC under the Government’s New Exploration and Licensing Policy (NELP). The approval of market determined pricing will drive investments in the sector.

RIL maintained a price differential of Rs. 2.50 per litre over PSUs’ Retail Selling Price on MS and HSD across most of the markets. RIL’s market share in the retail HSD and MS stood at 1.6% and 3.0% respectively. During the half year, refining EBIT increased to Rs 4,878 crore, an increase of 38% over the corresponding period of the previous year. EBIT margin for the refining business increased to 10.6% as compared to 8.0% in the corresponding period of the previous year. During the half year, the Jamnagar refinery processed 16.1 million tones of crude with an average utilization rate of 98%, which is significantly higher than the average utilization rates for refineries globally. For the period under review, average refinery utilization was at 87.4% in North America, 84.1% in Europe and 85.7% in the Asia Pacific region.To capture the growth opportunity in the ATF business, RIL has presence at 11 airports in India and is now refueling major domestic airlines. Work at 6 other airports is in advanced stage of completion. RIL added 38 retail outlets during the period under review taking a total number of retail outlets to 1,423.

The quarter witnessed significant volatility in global refining margins on the back of rising crude oil prices. Refining margins declined primarily due to a sharp fall in product cracks, mainly in gasoline and naphtha. Refining margins in the benchmark US Gulf Coast declined from US$ 18.8 to US$ 8.6 per barrel on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The benchmark Singapore complex margins also declined substantially from US$ 9.5 per barrel to US$ 6.4 per barrel. Light – Heavy differential remained in the US$ 5 per barrel range. RIL's GRM also declined on a Q-o-Q basis from US$ 15.4 to US$ 13.6 in the quarter ended September 2007. The 1H FY08 was at US$ 14.5 / bbl as against US$ 10.7 / bbl.

Average prices of Brent , WTI and Dubai for the six months period were US$ 71.2 / bbl, US$ 69.0 / bbl and US$ 65.9 / bbl respectively while the peak prices were US$ 81.1 / bbl, US$ 83.9 / bbl and US$ 76.7 / bbl respectively. Project delays and construction bottlenecks are pushing major capacity additions to beyond 2011, which augurs well for existing refiners like RIL and new ones like RPL.

For the period under review, revenues for the petrochemical segment increased by 6% from Rs 24,654 crore to Rs 26,174 crore. Increased prices accounted for 4% of the growth while the balance 2% was on account of higher volumes. During the period, EBIT from the petrochemical segment increased by 14% from Rs. 3,408 crore to Rs 3,870 crore. RIL’s petrochemicals business benefited from higher volumes through integration of IPCL. The petrochemicals production increased by 7% to 9.8 million tonnes, against 9.1 million tonnes for the corresponding period of the previous year.

Production volumes of the Polyester segment (PFY, PSF and PET) increased by 7% to 776,000 tonnes. RIL has maintained its focus on specialty products which now account for 55% and 40% of PSF and PFY production respectively. RIL now has a domestic market share in excess of 51% in the polyester segment. RIL’s polyester intermediates (PX, PTA and MEG) production grew by an impressive 14% to 23,66,000 tonnes during the half year. This significant increase in production is attributed to the new 730 KTA PTA plant at Hazira which was commissioned in 2Q FY07. Reliance’s domestic market share in polyester intermediates stood at 78%.

The polymers business witnessed sustained growth with aggregate production volumes of PP, PE and PVC growing by 6% to 1,662,000 tonnes. The increase in production is attributed to the full impact of the new PP plant at Jamnagar. RIL continues to be India’s largest producer of polymers with a domestic market share of 69%. RIL produced 931,000 tonnes of ethylene and 368,000 tonnes of propylene recording an increase of 9% and 8% respectively over the corresponding period of the previous year. The domestic market of polymers witnessed exciting growth with demand growing at 16% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. The robust growth was seen across polymers – PP demand grew by 15%, PE demand grew by 18% while demand for PVC grew by 15%. The increased demand came largely from end-use segments like flexible packaging, infrastructure, cables, consumer durables and agriculture.

During the period under review, production of Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB) remained unchanged at 80,500 tonnes. Reliance has a market share of 36% in the domestic LAB market. The Butadiene plant produced 86,000 tonnes, higher by 21% as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.

Reliance Retail Limited (RRL) launched its 3rd and much awaited format of stores – the hypermarket format, under the brand name of ‘RelianceMart’. ‘RelianceMart’ is India’s largest hypermarket spread across 165,000 square feet of shopping area. RRL started this quarter with 201 Reliance Fresh and 1 Reliance Digital store and ended the second quarter with 329 Reliance Fresh stores in over 30 towns and cities. Towards the end of the second quarter, RRL successfully launched 9 much awaited stores in the city of Mumbai. Reliance Fresh stores were also opened in Warangal, Dhanbad, Jamshedpur, Alluva, Kollam, Thrissur, Amritsar and Chandigarh.

Valuation

RIL’s E&P valuation of USD 45 billion factors in most of the potential upsides likely in the next 12-18month.The potential upsides factored in are likely further D6 reserve accretion, discovery in KG D9 and Mahanadi D4 blocks. Recent discoveries in KG D4 and Cauvery deepwater blocks, on which clarity is likely in 5-10 months, are not factored in. RIL also has another 13 blocks in the highly prospective eastern offshore region of India. Also valuation upside from Special economic zones (SEZ), coke gasification and paraxylene expansion projects are not factored in. RIL’s net profit is set to rise at a CAGR of 29% during FY07-FY10E. 8% equity dilution due to conversion of preferential warrants to promoters will mean 3-year EPS CAGR of 25% during the same period.

Expectations

EBITDA margins expected to fall by 40 bps led by decline in petchem margins GRM for Q3 expcted to be around $14-14.5/bbl Vs $11.3/bbl YoY & $13.6/bbl in Q2 FY08, Q3 Sing GRM at around $9.7/bbl. Extra-ordinary income of Rs 3840 cr from stake sale in RPL in Q3. Refining margins to drive topline, Petchem div to be subdued due to lower polyester margins QoQ . Effect of Re appreciation should be muted due to hedged positions. Petchem margins to disappoint: Naptha cracking margins declined 53% YoY and 37% QoQ, Integrated PE margins fall in Q3 by 41% YoY.

Outlook

With the Indian economy projected to grow at 8-9%, the demand for oil and gas is expected to rise significantly in the future. The company will continue to invest large proportions of cash flows into our E&P business. In addition to the ongoing efforts on exploration in various E&P blocks, expenses will be in the tune of US$ 5.2 billion on the development of KG-D6. Upon commencement of the gas production, RIL will emerge as the largest domestic producers of natural gas in the country. The E&P business is expected to deliver sustainable long-term returns for the company.