The USA Service Activity fell down to the minimum fixed in October 2001.

The index of business activity in the service sector in USA fell down to the level 44.6 points in January, and it indicates the recession coming. We can see results of regular monthly researching, which was taken by ISM in USA and published in February 5, 2008. The current indicator became the lowest one from the moment of acts of terror in September 11, 2001 in USA.

This index is a result of managers’ pulls in the sphere for evaluation the changes in this branch. The value more than 50 points presents increasing of the business activity, and if the value is below 50 – we can talk about its reducing. ISM experts admit the decreasing index below 50 had happened the first time during last 5 years. Experts forecasted the index at the level of 52.5 points, and in December 2007 it was 54.4.

The index of new orders for the service sector decreased to the level of 43.5 points in January 2008 in comparing with the previous month (53.9). The index of supply fell down to the level 49.0 points in comparing with 52.5 and the index of prices shortened from 71.5 points to 70.1.

Also ISM conclusion showed the unemployment increasing in the service sector, because of 24 employers reduced the number of stuff in their companies. At the same time only 6% hired workers additionally. In December these indicators were 13% and 16% respectively. The ISM index, which reflects the level of employment in the service sector, fell down to the level of 43.9 points in comparing with 51.8 in the previous month. Also this information was confirmed by the USA government, which informed about reducing the number of stuffs in February 1, 2008.

It is curious that in December 2007 similar reducing we could see in the sector of production in USA. Once the ISM index fell down to 47.7 points in comparing with 50.8 points in the previous month. The index value was minimum from April 2003. Then the index was reviewed to 48.4 points, but its reducing was tangible.

In January the ISM index of the production sector increased to 50.7 points in comparing with the December indicator. Experts forecasted its reducing to the level of 47 points.

The increasing is seen only in 8 from 18 branches of production. Analysts suppose that such numbers are indicative of the tendency of the reserved growth speed. The index of new orders increased to the 49.5 points, and in December it was 46.9 points. The production index rose from 48.6 points to 55.2.

The combined ISM index, which is counted at the base of the production and service indexes, was 44.6 points in January in comparing with 53.2 points in the previous month.

Before at the same day it was informed about the factor of business activity reducing in Europe, but there it stopped at the level of 50.6% (53.1 points in December), and it means the low increasing. Experts waited for the index of the business activity reducing to the level of 52.0 points.

In Italy, France and Germany the index was below forecasts and marks of the previous month. The index PMI in Germany fell down to the level of 49.2 points and 51.2 points in December. The index PMI in the service sector of France reduced to the level of 56.6 points in January in comparing with 58.9 points in December. PMI service index in Italy was 47.9 points in January (the previous indicator was 49.7 points).

In Great Britain on the contrary PMI service index increased and was fixed at the level of 52.5 points in comparing with 52.4 points in December.