The threat of recession in the world economy can force investors to reduce their positions at emerging markets, where Ukrainian market belongs to.

And deceleration the growth of direct foreign investments and loans can cause the threat of Hryvnja’s devaluation. To lower this risk is possible only to change the system of monetary politics and not to fix exchange course.

The reducing of prime interest rate by Fed added liquidity to financial markets, but didn’t increase inflow of capitals to emerging countries, as it was noticed at moments of previous rate reducing. It seems investors understood that activities of Fed are not only the wish to help Wall-Street to cope with losses, caused by mortgage crisis, but acknowledgement of the real threat of recession in the world economy.

Reducing the rate of investing increment will hurt to emerging economics. Many of them have joined to the model of the global support not long ago and satisfy the requirements of population at the expense of import goods without considerable export facilities. As results of such political direction are very serious deficits of running account in balance of payments of Romania, Turkey, Hungary, Bulgaria and Ukraine, which were covered by capitals inflow to the running accounts in balance of payments.

Accordingly reducing of the capital inflow to these countries can cause deficit of foreign currency for financing import volume needed and devaluation of national currencies. Experts from Bank of America suppose the currencies are going to weaken in European emerging countries, where the deficit of running account outbalance the similar indicators of emerging countries in other regions.

The most risky zones for investing staring investors in the face are Ukraine and Bulgaria. Only these two countries are characterized by expanding deficit of running account in balance of payments in fixing the firmly managed exchange course. Three years ago the deficit of the running account in Bulgaria was close to 7% GDP (this is the forecast of the Central Bank of Ukraine for 2008) and was formed by at the expense of energy resources and investing import. Therewith the stable economical situation in the country and perspectives of including to EU stimulate the growth of the population’s income, which was supported by considerable inflow of direct foreign investments to the country. Pending three years the deficit of running course in balance payments has increased to 12.6% GDP (totals of III quarter of 2007).
Analysts of the Central Bank in Ukraine are sure, that Ukrainian government will not permit such sharp increasing of the running account deficit. However, in the structure of Ukrainian import energy resources are dominated (so-called investing import). Ukraine has begun to face with massive inflow of consumers’ import goods, which are not included to inner production (as energy resources and equipment). And the deficit of the running account in balance of payments is covered by medium-term and short-term investments.

So using abovementioned information we can make a conclusion about high risks of balance of payments in Ukraine. And the Central Bank if Ukraine informs about possible fluctuations in the rates of Hryvnja exchange in the basket of Dollar and Euro for determining its course.