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Indo Asian Fusegear

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 01:49:48 EST

Indo Asian Fusegear - by raghni4949

According to media reports, Indo Asian Fusegear, a manufacturer of electrical switchgear and lighting products, is eyeing revenues of Rs 1,000 crore by the end of fiscal 2010-11, driven by large-volume contracts, new products and increased sales.

The company clocked revenues of Rs 276.41 crore in 2007-08, up 22.9% over the previous fiscal. Earlier last week, Indo Asian Fusegear reported a 22.21% drop in net profit to Rs 13.52 crore for 2007-08, primarily due to depreciation and interest costs on capital equipment bought for establishing new manufacturing facilities.

Home loan rates to increase further in India

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 01:46:53 EST

Home loan rates to increase further in India - by raghni4949

I am dead sure that the already steep home loan rates will pinch further following sharp increases in rates by two of the biggest players.

It is worthwhile pointing that ICICI Bank and HDFC, which together cover over half the home loan market in the country, have hiked interest rates effective from today.

If my calculations are right, ICICI’s customers will have to pay 0.75% more on home loans. The bank’s fixed rate now stands at 14.75% while its floating rate is 11.25-11.50%.

Rival home loan major HDFC has also increased interest rates on home loans by 0.75%. Because of this increase, HDFC customers will have to pay 11% interest on floating rates while fixed rates would be 14%.

The increase in loan rates from both ICICI and HDFC was expected after the rate hikes by the RBI last week.

India's external debt position

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 01:41:56 EST

India's external debt position - by raghni4949

According to media reports, India’s external debt position as on March 2008 was at $221.2 billion, up 30.4 per cent over end-March 2007. The external debt was $169.7 billion as on March 2007.

It is worth mentioning in this regard that while all components of external debt showed an increase during the year, External Commercial Borrowings , including Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds, recorded the maximum increase. In terms of statisric, they grew to $62 billion, from $42 billion last year and the share in the total external debt was 28 per cent.

Talking about short term debt, second biggest component in external debt with a share of 20 per cent, grew from $26 billion to $44 billion.

Among other components of external debt, multilateral debt increased to $39.3 billion, bilateral increased to $19.6 billion and NRI deposits increased to $43.6 billion.

Essar Oil

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 01:38:52 EST

Essar Oil - by raghni4949

I recommend a sell in Essar Oil from a short-term perspective. From the charts of the Essar Oil, one can easily see that it has been on a long-term down trend from its 52-week high of Rs 360 recorded in early January 2008. On June 30, the stock conclusively broke through the key support level at Rs 200 where the 200-day moving average is positioned and tumbled 11 per cent accompanied by above average volume.

The important factor to take note of is that the daily relative strength index is featuring in the bearish zone and the weekly RSI is on the brink of entering this zone. The daily moving average convergence and divergence is also declining and is featuring in the negative territory. The long-term down trendline of the stock is intact. Considering the above bearish facts I am negative on the stock in the short-term and expect its decline to prolong until it hits the price target of Rs 158 in the upcoming trading sessions. Traders with short-term perspective can sell the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 185.

Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group stocks

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 01:36:10 EST

Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group stocks - by raghni4949

In a surprising turn of event, few of Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group stocks, which normally fetched a relatively higher price-earning ratios, hit their 52-week lows yesterday.

To start with, Reliance Power, which made its debut early this year, touched its lowest point at Rs 135.20 before closing at Rs 136.80.

On the other hand, Reliance Capital, another group stock, slipped to its year-low of Rs 893.20 and finished at Rs 902.65.Reliance Communications and Adlabs Films were not very far off from their troughs. Reliance Infrastructure (formerly Reliance Energy) and Reliance Natural Resources have shed values of late with substantial volumes.

Indian IT industry

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 04:29:07 EST

Indian IT industry - by raghni4949

With information technology industry all set to go into a quiet period ahead of the first-quarter earnings season, which kicks off with Infosys announcing its results on July 11, tech counters could still have something for investors, in my opinion.

That is because no news is actually good news for the sector that went through a particularly jittery time on IT budgets, pricing and deal-size fronts. Point to be noted here is that the sector has outperformed the broader market by up to 25% over the past three months.

In my opinion, there could be some more upsides. Tier I stocks are still relatively well placed although confidence on demand remains the key trigger for absolute performance. A concern for the industry, however, could be pricing power in the second quarter. Though increases on new contracts have been rare in the past three months, pricing, nevertheless, has been stable without much discounts which, given the current scenario, is a relief in itself.

Financial literacy

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 04:25:55 EST

Financial literacy - by raghni4949

I get to know about financial literacy during recent classroom lecture. It is the process by which investors improve their understanding of financial markets, products, concepts and risks.

Through information and objective advice, they develop the skills and confidence to become more aware of financial risks and opportunities and make informed choices to improve their financial position.

It is worthwhile pointing that financial education primarily relates to personal finance, which enables individuals to take effective action to improve overall well-being and avoid distress in financial matters.

Significant thing to take note of is that Financial literacy goes beyond the provision of financial information and advice. It is the ability to know, monitor, and effectively use financial resources to enhance the well-being and economic security of oneself, one’s family, and one’s business.

Nickel and Silver

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 04:23:37 EST

Nickel and Silver - by raghni4949

Nickel has closed the week at its lowest since June 16, 2006. In my view, that is a sign of weakness. The outlook on this counter is not too positive as upthrusts will have to encounter overhead supply from trapped longs and rallies will be laboured and calibrated.

Bottom-fishing is to be avoided. Market internals indicate a 25% decline in turnover and a 27% increase in open interest. These are signs of fresh shorts being built up.

Talking about Silver, it closed at its three-week high, which is a sign of strength. The white metal is likely to witness some congestion at the Rs 25,000 to Rs 25,250 band, and a close above this threshold will be a bullish trigger for short-covering-cum- fresh longs.

I have no doubt that the turnover and open interest on this breakout must necessarily be high for a sustained upthrust. The odds remain promising. Market internals indicate a 1% increase in turnover and a 14% decline in open interest as the longs witnessed unwinding on advances.

Copper and Gold

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 04:21:12 EST

Copper and Gold - by raghni4949

At this moment of time, Copper is trading at its highest since week ended September 9, 2006. The previous week’s bullish view has been vindicated as reports point towards a downward revision in the global reserves of the red metal.

A falling US dollar is also likely to keep hard asset inflation in place and bulls are likely to triumph over the bears in the near term. Hold longs. Market internals indicate a 13% decline in turnover and a 10% decline in open interest.

On the other hand, Gold saw its highest weekly close since week ended March 15, 2008. That the turnover was robust adds to the bullish scenario as trader participation was ensured on the upthrust. With the weakening US dollar unnerving American investors, there is a natural tendency for a “flight towards safety” tactic, making gold the de facto beneficiary.

A consistent trade above the Rs 12,900 level will see bulls nudge gold past the Rs 13,250 mark in the near term. Hold longs with a stop-loss at Rs 12,450 levels. Market internals indicate a 12% increase in turnover and a 7% increase in open interest.

Mentha Oil and Aluminium

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 04:18:42 EST

Mentha Oil and Aluminium - by raghni4949

Mentha oil has witnessed a consolidation as there is a 27% decline in turnover and a 30% increase in open interest. These are indicators of a fresh short build-up. Avoid fresh longs for now.

Aluminium has also seen a consolidation. There is a 23% decline in turnover and a 10% decline in open interest as declines indicate profit sales rather than fresh buying. The expiry of the current month series may also cause the usual unwinding.

Century Enka Limited Review

Sun, 29 Jun 2008 06:42:12 EST

Century Enka Limited Review - by raghni4949

In my opinion, Century Enka Ltd, a B.K. Birla group company that saw its net profits dipping in 2007-08, will do appreciably well after two years.

Century Enka posted a net profit of Rs.1.34 million in the last fiscal, compared to Rs.1.67 million the preceding year.

The company has three subsidiaries - Century Enka Ltd in Pune, Konkan Synthetic Fibres in Mahad, Maharashtra, and Rajashree Polyfil in Bharuch, Gujrat - producing nylon, polyester filament yarns and industrial yarns, apart from tyre cord fabric.

According to sources, company would focus on controlling energy costs in the wake of spiralling global crude price.

Century Enka spent Rs 1.17 billion on energy last fiscal.

Charitable trusts can invest in other countries

Sun, 29 Jun 2008 06:37:40 EST

Charitable trusts can invest in other countries - by raghni4949

The Reserve Bank of India has given permission to charitable trusts and societies to invest in other countries through joint ventures and wholly-owned subsidiaries. In my opinion, this move will help hundreds of organisations to set up their branches abroad.

The move is an attempt by the Reserve Bank of India to deal with the flow of capital funds through liberalising the outflow of funds. To manage the forex reserves of over $300 billion, the central bank has already liberalised the flow of funds through companies and individuals.

The Rserve Bank of India has pinpointed clearly that only those registered societies and trusts, which are in existence for at least three years and fulfil other conditions, would be eligible to invest abroad after taking sanction from the central bank.

Gold prices

Sun, 29 Jun 2008 06:33:12 EST

Gold prices - by raghni4949

As we all know, the Sensex is on a downward spiral. Real estate looks shaky as interest rates head north. On the other hand, returns on fixed deposits actually reflect erosion of value in a time of double-digit inflation. The question now arises: Is there any worthwhile investment at present? Well, gold prices have been climbing sharply of late and are now within sniffing distance of the all-time high of Rs 13,112 per 10g, touched on March 18, 2008.

In my opinion, if the current trend in the international and domestic bullion markets continues, the price of the yellow metal might cross that peak in the coming week. The price of gold might even cross Rs 15,000 per 10 grams before the end of the year.

The festival season, which begins in September-October, has traditionally witnessed frenzied buying of gold in India, the world's largest consumer of the metal. Historical trends clearly shows that gold always becomes costlier when oil prices surge internationally.

Real estate boom in India and China

Sun, 29 Jun 2008 05:28:42 EST

Real estate boom in India and China - by raghni4949

I am dead sure that world's two fastest growing economies China and India will continue to witness boom in the real estate segments in smaller cities as both countries are expected to record strong growth in residential demand in the coming years.

An important growth driver for the real estate market would be the increasing urban population in both countries. India and China are projected to witness increased number of urban population especially by the end of 2050. From just about 30 per cent, India's urban population is anticipated to touch 55 per cent by 2050.

Another growth driver for both countries would be the rising population of working age. In the near term, that population is expected to touch a peak of over 70 per cent in China.

Man Industries

Sun, 29 Jun 2008 04:56:51 EST

Man Industries - by raghni4949

As I predicted way back, India's second biggest pipe maker Man Industries has posted a net profit increase of 4.5 per cent at Rs 14.19 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 as compared to Rs 13.58 crore posted in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

Net sales of the same period has gone up by 21 per cent at Rs 410 crore as against Rs 338 crore registered in the same period of the year earlier to that.

As for the full year, the company recorded a net profit of Rs 71 crore, which ended on March 31, 2008, up 29 per cent as against Rs 55 crore posted in the corresponding quarter of the earlier year.

Net sales of the same period has gone up by 32 per cent at Rs 1,500 crore as compared to Rs 1,133 crore posted in the year earlier to the previous year.

Bank of Baroda

Sun, 29 Jun 2008 04:54:44 EST

Bank of Baroda - by raghni4949

According to media reports, public sector lender Bank of Baroda (BoB) has decided to increase its benchmark prime lending rate by 0.5 per cent to 13.25 per cent.

BoB's PLR would go up from the existing 12.75 per cent and the new rate would be effective from July 1. The lending rate revision would lead to increase in PLR-related lendings like floating home loan, corporate loan and car loan.

The rate hike comes in the wake of Reserve Bank of India increasing its short-term lending rate and the mandatory level of deposit that banks are required to park with the central bank by 50 basis points each to contain inflation.

Markets may move sideways or fall further

Sun, 29 Jun 2008 04:50:00 EST

Markets may move sideways or fall further - by raghni4949

As expected by me, the onslaught by the bears continued for yet another week as the benchmark BSE index, the Sensex, ended in the red for the sixth successive week. The index shed 5.3 per cent (769 points) to 13,802 last week. The index has now shed a whopping 21 per cent (3,633 points) in last six weeks.

The sentiment remained bearish owing to RBI's rate hike move, political uncertainties, record inflation and crude oil, which hit $142 per barrel on Friday. The technicals, too, point to a further decline as the indices were not able to clear their short-term averages during the bounce back.

With no positive triggers, the markets may move sideways or fall further till the result season begins in second week of July.

Indian investors quite nervous

Sat, 28 Jun 2008 07:37:04 EST

Indian investors quite nervous - by raghni4949

With inflation figure touching 11.42% and market sinking, there is one more bad news, international crude oil prices have touched $142 per barrel. In my view, it may touch $170 per barrel in the near future.

Apart from inflation and rise in international crude oil prices, spooking markets was sharp hikes in interest rates, started by Reserve Bank of India and then by State Bank of India and other banks over the last three days. The inevitable conclusion that rising costs of inputs and finance would squeeze corporate profitability was enough to make market even more nervous.

According to experts, the corporates might be able to maintain their profitability during the present quarter, but the effect of rising costs on their bottomlines will be visible from the next quarter.

Plenty of US airlines are forced to cut their services

Sat, 28 Jun 2008 07:30:32 EST

Plenty of US airlines are forced to cut their services - by raghni4949

Because of increasing oil prices, plenty of US airlines are forced to cut their services and the flights could be reduced by as much as ten per cent this year with deeper cuts next year. The cuts, could bring industry down to the size last seen in 2002 following the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington in September 2001.

If oil prices kept on increasing, airlines may have to keep paring their schedules, as they struggle to find ways to make money in light of rapidly rising jet fuel prices, which have climbed more than 80 per cent in the last year. Air fares, which are up about 17 per cent this year on average, may rise as much as 40 per cent within the next four years.

Falling rupee in the time of rising inflation

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 03:00:28 EST

Falling rupee in the time of rising inflation - by raghni4949

I have no doubt in my mind that a falling rupee in the time of rising inflation could further queer the pitch for the country’s economy managers and currency administrators, who are already grappling with limited options to tame the runaway price line.

The rupee has lost 8.6 per cent to the dollar so far this year. A further slide in the domestic currency in the wake of rising demand for dollars to foot a growing oil import bill could add to an inflation rate that already has surged to double digits. A stronger rupee would make imports less costly and also help in sucking out liquidity from the system and soften demand.

India imports about 75 per cent of its total crude oil requirement and faces the twin challenge of containing the import bill while maintaining retail fuel prices at reasonable levels to prevent political backlash in an election year.

Oil imports during April-March 2008 were valued at $77.03 billion, up 35 per cent over last year’s $56.94 billion.

Interest rates increase on fixed rate home loan

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 02:49:34 EST

Interest rates increase on fixed rate home loan - by raghni4949

Don’t be surprised if your bank raises the rate of interest on your home loan even though you’ve borrowed at a fixed interest rate.

Many devils could be hiding in the details of loan agreements empowering banks to raise interest rate even for customers who have raised funds at a fixed regime, an event Indian households have not seen so far.

Here’s a little fine print lying in ICICI Bank’s home loan agreements, on fixed interest rate:

“In the event the Borrower opts for the fixed rate of interest offered by ICICI Bank, ICICI Bank shall have the right at any time or from time to time to review and reschedule the repayment terms of the LOAN or of the outstanding amount thereof in such a manner and to such extent as ICICI Bank may in its sole discretion decide.”

Other lenders, including ABN AMRO Bank, IDBI Bank and LIC Housing Finance, have similar clauses. In my opinion, home loan borrowers would be the worst hit after Reserve Bank of India raised key lending rates by 0.5 percentage points to battle inflation that crossed 11 per cent last week.

The concept of fixed interest rate regimes began in 2004 when interest rates on home loans stood at around 7.5-8 per cent. Since then, lending rates have risen to over 12 per cent at present. So far, however, interest rates have not been revised on fixed rate home loans.

Power Grid Corporation of India Limited review

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 02:41:21 EST

Power Grid Corporation of India Limited review - by raghni4949

A Navratna PSU and the Central Transmission Utility of the Country, Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (POWERGRID) has reported a net profit of Rs1448.47 crore for the financial year ended March 2008, a 17.82% rise as compared to the previous year. The turnover of the Corporation rose to Rs.5081.53crore from Rs. 4097.15crore, up by 24.03%.

At present POWERGRID is operating around 68,000 ckt. kms. of transmission lines along with 115 Sub-stations with transformation capacity of more than 75,000 MVA. With the use of state-of-the-art preventive maintenance techniques, average availability of transmission systems during the year 2007-08 was maintained at 99.65%. POWERGRID continues to wheel about 45% of total power generated in the country through its transmission network

Oil and gas stocks gain

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 01:42:33 EST

Oil and gas stocks gain - by raghni4949

Short covering in the oil and gas stocks led the blue-chip oil and gas stocks to gain on the bourses yesterday. The BSE-Oil & Gas index was the top gainer, as it was up 2.82 per cent since its previous close, with Reliance, which has a weightage of 56.54 per cent in the index, gaining 4.87 per cent. ONGC, with a weightage of 12.93 per cent, gained 0.73 per cent, GAIL (3.58 per cent), Cairn India (1.18 per cent) and Reliance Petroleum gained 1.85 per cent.

While the Reliance shares have fallen by more than 11 per cent since a month ago, yesterday’s gain was on the back of the news that it will start its gas operations by September. Reliance’s exploration partner NICO Resources has forecasted higher-than-estimated natural gas reserves in a major field, which was another positive for the stock.

NGC’s net realisation will increase this financial year compared with last year and this is a positive, given that the oil prices and other factors are constant. While upstream companies such as Reliance, ONGC and Cairn are bound to do well in the future also, it is the oil marketing companies that might have to face bad weather in the coming times

The oil and gas sector could outperform over the next 2-3 years, as the gas supply is going almost double and while some oil companies might face difficulties due to oil price rise, the gas pipeline companies are bound to benefit in any which way, as there will always be a need for pipelines.

Godawari Power and Ispat review

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 01:38:00 EST

Godawari Power and Ispat review - by raghni4949

I recommend a buy in Godawari Power and Ispat from a short-term perspective. I see that the stock has been on a medium-term up trend since its March 2008 trough of Rs 150 (a key support level).

On June 26, the stock jumped up more than 4 per cent conclusively crossing over the 21- and 50-day moving averages.

With this jump, the daily relative strength index has entered the bullish zone and the weekly RSI is rising in the neutral region. I notice that there is an increase in volume over the past three trading days. The moving average convergence and divergence is on the brink of entering the positive territory.

The medium-term up trendline is also still in place. I expect it to move up, until it hits the price target of Rs 235 in the forthcoming trading sessions. Traders with a short-term perspective can buy the stock while maintaining stop-loss at Rs 201.

JPMorgan India Active Bond Fund

Mon, 09 Jun 2008 07:26:22 EST

JPMorgan India Active Bond Fund - by raghni4949

JPMorgan Asset Management India has announced the launch of its open-ended income scheme, JPMorgan India Active Bond Fund. The fund opens for subscription today and closes on June 25.

The fund performance will be benchmarked against the Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index. In my view, JPMorgan India Active Bond Fund provides an attractive investment opportunity for investors to lock into long-term rates. A moderating economy and a favourable demand-supply scenario make case for investment in a dynamically-managed bond fund.

India's supply of long Government bond has been steady for the last three years, while banks/insurance companies/pension fund demand continue to grow at a rapid pace raising good demand for long bonds.

Globally, JPMorgan Asset Management has $1,187-billion worth of assets under management (March 31, 2008) which is highly-diversified by asset class and client group.

Of this corpus, roughly 56 per cent ($670-billion) is deployed in fixed income funds making JPMorgan Asset Management one of the world's leading fixed income managers.

Sejal Architectural Glass Ltd IPO

Mon, 09 Jun 2008 07:23:22 EST

Sejal Architectural Glass Ltd IPO - by raghni4949

The initial public offering of Sejal Architectural Glass Ltd opened for subscription today. The company’s public offering of 91,94,155 equity shares of Rs 10 each, is in the price band of Rs 105-Rs 115 per share. The issue constitutes 32.84 per cent of the fully diluted post issue capital. It will close on June 12.

The company plans to part finance a new facility for production of float glass with a capacity of 2,00,750 MT per annum in Bharuch, Gujarat.

The shares are to be listed on National Stock Exchange of India and Bombay Stock Exchange.

Saffron Capital Advisors is the sole book running lead manager to the issue.
Incorporated in January 1998, Sejal is engaged in the business of processing glass. The company has processing facilities for insulating, toughened, laminated glasses and for decorative glass. The existing plant of the company is located in Silvassa.

Sadbhav Engineering aquire OBCL

Mon, 09 Jun 2008 07:19:18 EST

Sadbhav Engineering aquire OBCL - by raghni4949

Sadbhav Engineering, a construction firm will acquire 74 per cent stake in Hong Kong based Ocean Bright Corporation Limited (OBCL) for an undisclosed amount.

The acquisition was carried out through the wholly owned subsidiary of the company Sadbhav Natural Resources, which entered into an agreement to acquire 74 per cent stake in OBCL, the company said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.

OBCL directly and through its subsidiaries holds licences for prospecting iron ore, copper, lime stone in the provinces of Tele, Nampula, Monica, Niassa of African country Mozambique.

At present, Sadbhav is executing a number of mining services contracts for Gujarat Heavy Chemicals, Western Coal Fields and Northern Coal fields Ltd with capacity of 20 million cubic metres per annum.

Zydus Cadila acquire Simayla Pharmaceuticals

Mon, 09 Jun 2008 07:16:42 EST

Zydus Cadila acquire Simayla Pharmaceuticals - by raghni4949

Pharmaceutical firm Zydus Cadila is going to acquire 70 per cent stake in South Africa-based generic firm Simayla Pharmaceuticals for an undisclosed amount.

The acquisition was carried out through its wholly owned subsidiary Zydus Healthcare SA PTY Ltd and would open up several opportunities for the group in a market that is estimated to touch 4.62 billion dollars at consumer prices over the next three years.

The generic sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19 per cent to touch 1.29 billion dollar and is likely to account for 30 per cent of the total drug market by 2011.

Over the next three years the group plans to launch a total of 50 products in the market. The products would be manufactured at Moraiya, Ahmedabad which was approved by the medicines Control Council, the regulatory authority of South Africa.

Besides, South Africa, Simayla would market the products in Namibia, Angola, Botswana, Swaziland and Mozambique.

Earlier in 2003, Zydus group acquired Alpharma France, it acquired Japan-based Nippon Universal Pharmaceuticals and Brazil-based Quimica e Farmaceutica in 2007 and recently it acquired Laboratorios Combix.

Delhi bullion market report

Sun, 08 Jun 2008 08:02:42 EST

Delhi bullion market report - by raghni4949

Despite subdued physical demand and rising inflation, both gold and silver surged from their previous week’s close on the Delhi bullion market past week largely due to spurt in global bullion prices. Closely following the international silver trend, Spot Silver (.999), which opened at Rs 23500 per kg dipped by Rs 100 as silver in the global market went down from 1690 cent to 1675 cent per ounce, but again inclined to Rs 23750 with global silver prices touching 1690 cent.

Spot Silver past Thursday again fell to Rs 23500 on weakening of demand. However, with the London Silver surging to 1742 cent, spot silver here zoomed to Rs 24700 end week, gaining a hefty Rs 700 per kg over its previous week’s close. Silver coin also held firm at Rs 272 per coin end week. Easing crude oil prices-down from $ 135 per barrel to $ 122.55 and weak dollar pulled down gold in global market from $ 893.80 to $ 880 per ounce in the beginning of the week.

Interesting time for Indian economy

Sun, 08 Jun 2008 07:45:59 EST

Interesting time for Indian economy - by raghni4949

It is indeed an uneasy time for investors, but at the same time, it is an interesting time for the economy. The stock market is not exactly the darling at the moment, but the economy is abuzz. To the sharp market man, it offers clues on times to come including the direction of the stock markets.

The domestic economy grew at nine percent in 2007-08 beating even the advance estimate of 8.7 percent by the government. This is the third year in a row that the economy grew by nine percent or more. This time, the biggest driver was agriculture as against the service and manufacturing sectors in the last two years. This is very interesting as it indicates that there is no sector that can be singled out for growth, and it is almost as if there is a strong competition out there as to who would hog the limelight every year.

The biggest of all concerns is the oil price. One of the interesting things that has happened as a result of this unprecedented price hike is the decoupling of the gold prices with oil. For the first time ever, the gold price has actually dropped while the oil price continues to rise. Perhaps the economics of demand-supply has finally taken over the economics of hedging.

Though the future is anybody's guess, it is advisable to stay away from the oil sector. Also, one must look at sectors which are not dependent on oil as its major input cost such as IT and other services, and avoid others like manufacturing, transport and tourism-related which are worst-affected.