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N Deal.......between India and US...will it materialize?

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:28:20 EST

N Deal.......between India and US...will it materialize? - by rajiv

Freinds,

I just went through a post at othersite which says that what India was thinking about NDeal is not the case.There are many rules and many regulations and if that is the case I am afraid the N Deal will not go through....

I am pasting it here:

Embarrassing revelations on the nuclear deal

September 03, 2008

The Bush administration, through a gag order on its written responses to Congressional questions, had sought to keep the Indian public in the dark on the larger implications of the nuclear deal, lest the accord run into rougher weather. But now its 26 pages of written answers have been publicly released by a senior United States Congressman.

The administration's January 2008 letter to the House Foreign Affairs Committee -- made public by Representative Howard L Berman on Tuesday -- bring out the following:

The US has given no binding fuel-supply assurance to India. The prime minister told the Lok Sabha on August 13, 2007 that 'detailed fuel supply assurances' by the US for 'the uninterrupted operation of our nuclear reactors' are 'reflected in full' in the 123 Agreement. But the Bush administration has denied this. Its letter to the House Committee states that the US will render help only in situations where 'disruptions in supply to India... result through no fault of its own,' such as a trade war or market disruptions. 'The fuel supply assurances are not, however, meant to insulate India against the consequences of a nuclear explosive test or a violation of nonproliferation commitments,' the letter said. The letter also reveals that the US has given no legally binding fuel-supply assurance of any kind.

No US consent to India's stockpiling of lifetime fuel reserves for safeguarded power reactors. The prime minister had told the Lok Sabha on August 13, 2007 that, 'This Agreement envisages, in consonance with the Separation Plan, US support for an Indian effort to develop a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to guard against any disruption of supply for the lifetime of India's reactors.' But the Bush administration's letter to the House Committee makes clear that India will not be allowed to build such stocks as to undercut US leverage to re-impose sanctions.

US civil nuclear cooperation is explicitly conditioned to India not testing ever again. The prime minister told the Lok Sabha as recently as July 22, 2008 that, 'I confirm that there is nothing in these agreements which prevents us from further nuclear tests if warranted by our national security concerns. All that we are committed to is a voluntary moratorium on further testing.'

Last year, he had told Parliament that, 'There is nothing in the Agreement that would tie the hands of a future Government or legally constrain its options to protect India's security and defence needs.' The Bush administration, however, has told the House Committee that India has been left in no doubt that all cooperation will cease immediately if New Delhi [Images] conducted a test.

The US has retained the right to suspend or terminate supplies at its own discretion. The Bush administration letter plainly contradicts the prime minister's assertion in Parliament on August 13, 2007 that, 'An elaborate multi-layered consultation process has been included with regard to any future events that may be cited as a reason by either Party to seek cessation of cooperation or termination of the (123) Agreement.' The letter states that the US right to suspend all supplies forthwith is unfettered.

The letter makes clear that the 123 Agreement has granted India no right to take corrective measures in case of any fuel-supply disruption. Rather, India's obligations are legally irrevocable. It further indicates there is no link between perpetual safeguards and perpetual fuel supply. Contrast this with what the prime minister claimed in Parliament on August 13, 2007: 'India's right to take "corrective measures" will be maintained even after the termination of the Agreement.' Or the prime minister's repeated assurances to Parliament since March 2006 that India's acceptance of perpetual international inspections will be tied to perpetual fuel supply.

The Bush administration's letter states that the 123 Agreement fully conforms to the Hyde Act provisions. In a press release recently, the Prime Minister's Office made the following claim on July 2, 2008: 'he 123 Agreement clearly overrides the Hyde Act and this position would be clear to anyone who goes through the provisions.'

The letter assures Congress that the 'US government will not assist India in the design, construction or operation of sensitive nuclear technologies.' That rules out not only the transfer of civil reprocessing and enrichment equipment or technologies to India even under safeguards, but also casts a shadow over the US granting India operational consent to reprocess spent fuel with indigenous technology. Under the 123 Agreement, India has agreed to forego reprocessing until it has, in the indeterminate future, won a separate, congressionally vetted agreement.

On one issue, the 123 Agreement had held out hope for India in the future by stating in its Article 5(2) that, 'Sensitive nuclear technology, heavy water production technology, sensitive nuclear facilities, heavy water production facilities and major critical components of such facilities may be transferred under this Agreement pursuant to an amendment to this Agreement.' But the Bush administration's letter to Congress states that the US government had no plan to seek to amend the deal to allow any sensitive transfers.

Contrast this with what the prime minister said in Parliament on August 17, 2006 -- that India wanted the 'removal of restrictions on all aspects of cooperation and technology transfers pertaining to civil nuclear energy, ranging from nuclear fuel, nuclear reactors, to reprocessing spent fuel.' Lest there be any ambiguity regarding this benchmark, he added: 'We will not agree to any dilution that would prevent us from securing the benefits of full civil nuclear cooperation as amplified above.' Earlier, on August 3, 2005, he told the Lok Sabha that he had received 'an explicit commitment from the United States that India should get the same benefits of civilian cooperation as (an) advanced country like the United States enjoys.'

Dr Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, is the author, among others, of Nuclear Proliferation: The US-India Conflict.

Well,

It is very clear that US do not gives any guarentee for uninterrupted Uranium.USA is not binded by the law that they will give fuel ....besides that there is a clause that if India TEST a nulcear explosion...USA will immidiately stop giving Uranuim and that in no circumstances the PEOPLE OF INDIA WILL GET READY TO TAKE.

If the nuclear deal is going to create 10,000 jobs in US itself and if US feels that they are the natural ally of India as both believes in democracy then US will have to overrule it otherwise with the above article , which is a part of 123 agreement, this deal is definately not going through.....US can't impose rules to go for civil nuclear to India. If this is a win win situation for both and if both countries are to be benifitted then why there are RULES.......

India's SECURITY is at the TOP of anythi ng in the WORLD and not a single Indian will do away with it....India has all rights to do whatever she feels is needed for her defence and that RIGHT INDIA WILL NEVER SURRENDER TO ANYBODY..........I think USA should understand that and think over it.....

Indian N-deal will create 10000 jobs in US: State Dept

Wed, Sep 3 01:55 PM

India plans to import eight 1000 mw nuclear-powered reactors by 2012 and the US hopes to win at least two contracts, which it feels will significantly boost its atomic industry.

The envisaged sale of at least two reactors, to what it calls 'lucrative and growing Indian market', would create 3000-5000 direct jobs and 10,000-15,000 indirect jobs in the US nuclear industry, the US Department of State has said.

"Access to Indian nuclear infrastructure would allow US companies build reactors more competitively here and in the rest of the world -- not just India," it said in answer to questions raised by the powerful US House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

Though the replies to searching spate of queries raised by the House Committee on Foreign Affairs were delivered in October, 2007, they were made public on Wednesday by the new Chairman of the panel Howard Berman just ahead of the Nuclear Suppliers Group plenary in Vienna to consider a waiver for India from its guidelines enabling atomic trade.

"We are confident that the initiative for a civil nuclear cooperation would yield important economic benefits to the US," the US State Department has told the Congress.

India currently has 15 operating nuclear power reactors with seven under construction, but 'it intends to increase this number significantly,' it said.

The Department's assessment says that meeting this ramp up in demand for civil nuclear reactors, technology, fuel and support services holds the promise of opening new markets for the US.

The US also feels that participation in India's emerging market will help make the American nuclear power industry globally competitive thereby benefiting its domestic nuclear power sector.

"This initiative will permit US companies to enter the lucrative and growing Indian market -- something they are currently prohibited from doing so," it said.

The State Department has listed 15 nuclear-related US firms, including giants like General Electric and Westinghouse who are ready to move to India.

The State department feels that a successfully implemented civil nuclear cooperation initiative with India will allow scientists from both the nations to work together in making nuclear energy safer, less expensive, more proliferation resistant and more efficient.

"Newly forged partnerships in the nuclear field will facilitate scientific advancement in the many facets of nuclear energy technology," it said.

The US also feels that Indian involvement in global for a such as International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor and the Generation-IV Forum can expand the potential for innovation in the future of nuclear energy as well as stake of emerging countries in developing cheaper sources of energy.

US official have also revealed that Washington may choose to allow India to participate in the future in the Department of Energy's Global Nuclear Energy Partnership and allow it to collaborate with advanced nuclear technology in developing new proliferation resistant technology.

"Such interaction could only be contemplated subsequent to the civil nuclear cooperation initiative," US officials said.

It is obvious that this deal will do loads of good for US company as well.It will also do loads of good for Nuclear plants co in USA......It is estimated that around rupees 30,000 cr will be invested if the deal goes through and if it doesn't go through then many companies will be loosing an opportunity in USA as well as in India.Indis needs power(nulcear Power for civil use) to grow but not at the expense of its security......

Prez Bush has to rethink it over.

Madhucon Project...cmp 298..

Sun, 17 Aug 2008 23:12:51 EST

Madhucon Project...cmp 298.. - by rajiv

Madhucon Project is a cash reach co.
It has a hefty reserve of Rs 507 cr on an eq base of just 7 cr…..just calculate the BV!
They have hefty orders of over 2000 cr.
52 week high was Rs 869 and low is Rs.268….
Np increased from 9.2 cr to 14 cr.
Madhucon Proj has interest in
1)High Way projects
2)Water Supply
3)Express Highway and Toll Roads
4)Infrastructure
5)Property Development
6)Sewage Terminal Engineering
7)Irrigation
8)Railway Projects

Expertise in project management,Design and engineering,Project execution and const management….
Moreover the Infra project arm is getting demerge from Madhucon project.

Madhucon Projects Limited
Madhucon Projects Limited (MPL) is a profit making listed Public Limited Company engaged in execution of Infrastructure Projects, such as construction of National Highways, Fly-Overs, Dams, Tunnels, Aquaducts, Bridges, Coal Handling Plants, Workshops Property Development Projects including High Rise structures, Hospitality and retail industry structures etc. & enjoying substantial non-fund based limits in the form of Bank Guarantees with Banks under Multiple Banking arrangements.

Madhucon Sugars Limited
Madhcon acquired a loss-making and sick sugar factory in the co-operative sector at Khammam and turned it to a profit making company. Madhucon Sugars Limited's (MSL) present crushing capacity is 1500 TPD, which is being augmented to 5000 TPD in stages. The sugar factory is adding an Ethanol Distillery also, apart from setting up a 22MW Cogen Plant for producing power, using bagasse as the main fuel.

Simhapuri Energy Limited
Madhucon is setting up a coal based Thermal power plant of 50MW at krishnapatnam in Andhra pradesh in two phases. In the first phase, generating capacity of 135MW in will be commissioned and in December 2009 and 135MW in March 2010. Power purchases Agreement (PPA) and coal linkage have been tied up with power Trading Corporation of India. The fuel coal for our power plant is met from our own mines in Indonesia.
PT Madhucon Indonesia
Madhucon has started open cast coal mining in Indonesia on a 100 acres site initially. We expect to mine about 3 lakh tonnes production by December 2007. The coal has higher calorific value and less ash content compared to domestic coal.

Madhucon Granites Ltd
Madhucon Granites Ltd(MGL) has an experience of over 16 years in the business of quarrying dimensional granite blocks and production of polished slabs catering to the needs of international markets, the world over. It has earned a name for quality, dependability and competitiveness in the international market for its products with a wide variety of colours and shades. MGL established its first 100% EOU in 1988, in the granite rich region of Khammam District in Andhra Pradesh.

The factory at Khammam processes a wide variety of intricately patterned monuments in various shades of Black, Black Galaxy, Vizag Blue, Paradise,etc. crafted by skilled artisans.

MGL has a reputation for excellence in terms of quality of products and timely delivery of shipments, catering to the varied needs of the customers, the world over.
MGL has a very sophisticated Processing Plant spread over 12.5 acres near Hosur on Bangalore - Chennai Highway. The-state-of-the-art facility is an epitome of excellence in design and work flow methods - equipped with Avant-Garde processing know-how from Germany and France.This Plant envisages an annual production of 7,00,000 sq. meters finished slabs of 2-4 Cms thickness and in sizes ranging from 2.60 x 1.20 to 3.40 x 2.10 meters.
Madhucon Granites owns quarries spanning over 2250 acres of land having abundant Granite deposits in the States of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Orissa and Madhya Pradesh in India. The jewel of the crown is the world famous Black Galaxy quarries in Chimakurthy area of Prakasam District of Andhra Pradesh, which alone produces about 1000 CBM of rough blocks every month.
MGL has to its credit an exquisite variety of fine Granite-earthy stones to soft corals and greens. The range displays rare varieties of textural beauty and shades such as - Steel Grey, Absolute Black, Vizag Blue, Ilkal Rose, White Galaxy, Himalayan Blue, Kashmir White, Paradise, Red Multi, Imperial Green, Seaweed Green, Tan Brown, Salem Blue, Madhura Gold, Kashmir Gold, Columbo Jupurana and Lady Dream.
MGL has its presence felt in USA, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Holland, Middle East and Australia. MGL is developing its own distribution network in USA, Middle East, Australia and other countries. MGL has warehouses in Dubai, Australia, Indonesia & USA.

(International footing co going so cheap?)

My comments:

A company having a hefty reserve of Rs 507 cr on and eq base of just 7 cr and with so many subsidiaries and interest in almost all field needs a better valuation and one should buy this at the CMP of 298.
It is a Bonus candidate too…….
Madhucon Proj can give even 5 bonus shares for every 1 share held that much reserve it has got and still one can see no dent in it’s reserve…as it can eat only 35 cr from the reserve.This is just my view and no inside info about Bonus….
The orders are pilling up and will keep on going up.I see no problem in executing them as they have enough reserve to take care of any project to get executed.With 500 cr reserve on a tiny eq base of 7 cr any bank can open a credit for them……
According to the latest annoucement at bse ,Madhucon Project has won EPC contracts of Rs 989 cr for Thermal Power plant at Ksrihnapatnam South , Nellore dist,AP.....These are the things to come in future....
A single contract of Rs 989 cr speaks the capacity of this small co...which is in process of becoming a Goliath.....
Take your own decision……

Nifty stages a comeback........

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 23:33:53 EST

Nifty stages a comeback........ - by rajiv

Friends,
I am pasting here exactly what I read in ET today.....

Nifty stages a comeback, scales ‘500DMA’ resistance
Shakti Shankar Patra ET INTELLIGENCE GROUP

MUCH maligned in the recent past for gross underperformance compared to most of its global peers, the benchmark 50-share Nifty has made a dramatic comeback in the last few trading sessions. And in the process, has achieved something that none of the others have — re-conquered its 500 daily moving average (DMA) while most global indices continue to languish well below it. Though not as frequently talked about as some of its popular brethren, the 500 DMA is a very important long-term technical trend indicator — with life above it considered bullish and below it bearish. Its importance can be gauged from the fact that since conquering this key indicator in June 2003, the beginning of the last bull run, the Nifty never fell below it for the next five years. On rare occasions, the 500 DMA acted as a strong support and the Nifty invariably managed to bounce back strongly. However, this changed in June as the Nifty plunged below its 500 DMA for the first time in five years. Interestingly, this was the time when even the staunchest of the bulls threw in the towel and the bear market was, for all measures, confirmed. With Nifty conquering it back, bulls now have one more reason to celebrate. But they need to defend and build on it, if hopes of annexing the last and most important moving average — the 200 DMA, now at 5117 — are to be kept alive.

The picture is not all rosy though. As the adjoining table shows, most major global indices are well below their respective 500 DMAs — a clear sign that this is not the best of time for equity bulls. In fact, the only other major index above its 500 DMA — the Brazilian Bovespa — is consistently trending down and looks ready to plunge below it any moment. The fact that even the Sensex has still not managed to conquer its 500 DMA, only further complicates matters and makes the job of the bulls difficult. But given that the average major rally in the last bear market was for nearly 35% in around 3-4 months, the Nifty looks all set to retest its 200 DMA in a month or two, irrespective of whether we continue in this bear hug or manage to escape out of it.

My Comments:

I am all at Sea in technicals but the analysis habit to look whatever I read helps me sometime....but for that one has to read a lot and able to pick up what is written when he is reading……..but for that reading habit has to be cultivated…
I read a lot…….Lol…..I think many would read this news in ET today but ….

What is these 500 DMA?I never heard of 500 DMA....heard of 20 DMA, 50 DMA, 200 DMA but where this 500 DMA came suddenly from the blue?
But according to what written in the above text seems 500 DMA plays an important role in deciding the market course atleast in Indian Market, leave other markets…..

As it is said that 500 DMA is the most important support/resistance/levels for the market future course……Now coming to the next para wherein is written that Beware, “the Brazilian Bovespa — is consistently trending down and looks ready to plunge below it any moment”……it is actually written to misguide the investors or common man who only use to just read the paper and then believe what written is true and then comes out to argue…….
If Brazilian Bovespa is going to go below 500 DMA then it is a very very good sign for the whole world.It means that commodities prices will go down as the speculation in commodities is about to end…….as commodities prices will come down , Inflation world over will come down and slow down will be arrested …..

Cheers for the Brazilian Bovespa going down, friends!

I liked this news very much……I am not tracking Brazilian Bovespa recently but got to know about it while I read this………at one time Brazilian Bovespa was trading at over 55000……while India was just merely 21k…….and is now at 14700 after coming back from 12500 levels….India is a Great Value buy……
Crude is at $118.60 and Dow rushed to 331 points rally….seems the demand distruction is taking place too fast…..as crude is tanking so fast…….

Can't resist to write, which I recalled after I finished this post and that is if the crude speculation ends and so will commodities....where the money of the world over had gone in....then I heard at CNBC USA channel the otherday that over $ 3 trillion money will be back chasing equity ....getting out from commodities...I think I have not to write much now....
Time for Bulls to Massacre Bears ........

Under the post "Some answers I try to give...... " which I wrote....here...

Fri, 25 Jul 2008 21:25:23 EST

Under the post "Some answers I try to give...... " which I wrote....here... - by rajiv

Friends,

Under the post "Some answers I try to give...... " I wrote here 21 days back i.e.on 4th of July 2008.....

I wrote:

"No one on the earth imagined that Gas prices can go up to $4.5 /gal and milk can be equally costly……With the Minimum wage not going up which is 6.3/hr , how can a person will able to run his/her house…in USA?

It just comes to $ 1000 /mn and if tax are deduced what can be the salary?

No wonder , according to present poll, 50% of US citizens do not have Medical Insurance.When Medical Insurance is needed the most, 50% of Americans do not have it.Why? because they can’t afford it…..!Wow!

I have migrated from India to USA in last Feb 2, 2008.I use to read , watch and hear channels and papers etc.I get perturbed looking at the situations of people when I see them living on hourly jobs.I also come in same category.Maybe that is the reason I am able to look it from so near.Yes, I am also doing an hourly job……and not still able to find a decent job of my subject and liking, but I have to start somewhere as I can’t go on living without any livelihood as I have a family with me."

I demanded for an increase of hrly job rate which though coincidently but has been heard or rather say Fed was thinking the way I was thinking and we saw a rise of 70 cent per hr jobs....which was declared 2-3 days back....I am happy to note here that what I am writing here is right on dot and it is coming so timely.....there is still lots to be done on Medical Insurance front....as almost 50% of the US population is without any insurance as they can't pay the premium......the premium of the whole family should come down.

India is the cheapest destination for any major operations which costs here 10 times more then India.Collobarate with Indian Medical Association and take the patient to India if not it is an emergency operation....the Medical Premium will go 1/10 of what is now in USA and that will be a great great relief to lower Middle class......

I hope someone at helm reads this or think like this.I think the Medical business and their players has made billions of dollars in past decades and now is the time for them to pay back......

Just imagine, a Heart Operation cost $60,000 minimum in USA means Rs 24 lacs Indian rupees, where as in India it is just 2.4 lacs rupees for the entire opeartion......

There can be a growing business in USA to take patients to India and thus decreasing the premium.I am reading that Co are luring employees to take this option, if needed to have operation in India or Thailand or Malaysia ....and thus save Co from paying huge premiums to the Medical Insurance Co.

This is also one place where business will flourish in both countries....Viz India and USA as now India has come more nearer to USA after the Indian Government won the vote of Confidence for passing the N Deal with USA.....

My predictions coming true.........

Wed, 16 Jul 2008 21:27:10 EST

My predictions coming true......... - by rajiv

Friends,

I have written very categorically that this crude speculation will burn many pockets and that is seen in the below news....

I was hearing Fed Chief , Ben Bernanke that he does not think crude is going up on Speculations.I was surprised to hear that.

But to makeup the loss in housing mortgage , US is playing with commodities and that seems to be the biggest blunder by USA as playing in commodities will make the whole wrold in deep recession which will even be wrose then 1929 depression.....

Because the crude and commodities rally will take the steam off from their companies as well, like Airlines.....which I already wrote in my past post.....So Fin Insti gains will make other companies poorer and that will have even more bad effect in US economy....and world over.......

The Billions dollar loss of Delta per quater and AMR making a $1.4 billions which was $317 mn profit and Delta made a profit of $137 mn are making loss of over$1 bn is in itself the testimony that the course taken for making up the loss by Fin Insti for sun prime mortagage is not worth walking on....

Rajiv

AMR, Delta unveil billion-dollar Q2 losses

Reuters NEW YORK/CHICAGO

SOARING jet fuel prices, as expected, are taking a toll on the US airline industry, with the first two companies to report second quarter results posting billion dollar losses, though after charges. While AMR — parent of American Airlines — posted a loss, including special charges, amounting to $1.4 billion, Delta reported a $1 billion quarterly loss after special charges.
   However, excluding special charges, Delta said it earned $137 million, or 35 cents per share. The airline, which has agreed to buy Northwest Airlines, said the special charges were mainly for the impairment of goodwill, emerged from bankruptcy at the end of April 2007. Delta expects to end the year with liquidity of $3.2 billion, including $1 billion under a revolving credit facility.
   AMR, which posted a profit of $317 million, or $1.08 per share, a year earlier, took a severe beating as its fuel bill jumped 47.4%. AMR paid $2.42 billion for fuel in the quarter, up from $1.64 billion a year earlier.
   Excluding onetime items, the parent of the No 1 US airline said its loss was $248 million, or $1.13 per share. That compares with Wall Street expectations for a $1.42-pershare loss, according to Reuters Estimates. Items include a $1.1 billion noncash accounting charge to write down the value of certain aircraft to their estimated fair value. Other charges related to capacity reductions.
Its revenue rose 5.1% to $6.18 billion and it ended the quarter with $5.5 billion in cash and shortterm investments, including a restricted balance of $435 million. Shares of AMR fell 45% in the second quarter.
   AMR’s loss sets the stage for what could be a troubling string of reports from rival carriers. Top carriers, including AMR’s American, have announced sweeping capacity cuts to offset fuel costs. Delta, on the other hand, said it expects its capacity for the second half of 2008 to be down 4% compared to 2007, with domestic capacity down 13% and international up 14%. The company plans to remove the equivalent of 100 regional aircraft by the end of the year.
   US airlines have announced big cutbacks as they grapple with unprecedented oil prices, which have doubled in the past year. The carriers have been forced to raise fares, introduce fees, cut services, jobs and capacity and target more lucrative international routes. In March, Delta unveiled plans to cut 2,000 jobs, offering voluntary retirement and “early out” programs, but in June said more than 4,000 employees chose to take part in the programs.
   Delta said on Wednesday its merger with Northwest Airlines is targeted to close during the fourth quarter of 2008 and that it has reached a pre-merger joint bargaining agreement between the Delta and Northwest units of the Air Line Pilots Association.

George Soros has become bullish on India......

Mon, 14 Jul 2008 22:03:16 EST

George Soros has become bullish on India...... - by rajiv

What more does one want? .......As I have written, there is only India and China left to make money with GDP growth at 7.5% (due to slow down) .......others are either in negative growth rate or very negligible to write for......with US financial market in a MESS there are only 2 countries to make money in the world.......India and China which are at their lowest.....down by 40% and 50% from their high.......
Sooner or later FII's has to come back......they will buy what they sold at much higher rate.....

Rajeev

Read on:

SOROS GOES CONTRARIAN, SIGNALS A BUY

Billionaire Investor’s Hedge Fund Quantum Goes On A Buying-Spree, Invests Rs 600 Cr In Various Cos Since Feb As FIIs Turn Sellers
Vijay Gurav MUMBAI

BILLIONAIRE global investor George Soros has turned contrarian on the Indian stock market, which has seen stocks being beaten down over the past few weeks. His hedge fund Quantum, which was reported to have posted earnings of over 30% last year, went on a buying-spree at a time, when most funds were dumping stocks in a sliding market. On July 4, Quantum Fund bought a 3.8% equity in Jain Irrigation Systems, and close to 1% of the holding of Jai Corp for a value consideration of Rs 167 crore. Since February, the fund has made investments valued at close to Rs 600 crore, or $ 140 million, in various companies, including Indiabulls Financial Services, Indiabulls Real Estate and Kalindee Rail Nirman. Quantum’s selective stock picking comes at a time, when institutional investors have been pulling out a large chunk of money amid concerns over a combination of factors such as weak global markets, soaring global oil prices and spiralling inflation in India. “Hedge funds normally are active, when there is some momentum in the market. Quantum may be trying to do some value-buying, but one has to see how long the fund stays invested, given the prevailing uncertain market conditions,” said a stock broker. George Soros is famed for betting against the British pound in 1992 and making over $1 billion in the process, bruising the Bank of England (BoE) which fought a losing battle, ending up drawing down its reserves. Much later, he was attacked by former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad for speculating in currencies of South-East Asia. Indeed, Mr Soros had also lent money to Russia during troubled times. Among his latest acquisitions in India, Mr Soros bought a fresh stake of 3.8% in Jain Irrigation for Rs 121 crore. The stocks were bought at Rs 442.9 per share against the current market price of Rs 483. The stock appreciated 5.4% despite a flat movement in the Sensex during the past week. Apart from Quantum, a few other leading funds — Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and FID Funds —hold individual stakes ranging between 1.7% and 5% in Jain Irrigation. Mr Soros also picked up a small stake of 0.9% in Jai Corp at Rs 282 against Friday’s closing of Rs 372. The scrip, in fact, has vaulted 27% in one week, outperforming the market by a wide margin. In the past, the legendary investor had picked up stake in many other companies, and is known to have invested several million dollars across sectors. Two Indiabulls group companies — Indiabulls Financial Services and Indiabills Real Estate — are notable examples of Quantum’s recent acquisitions. The fund held 2.2% and 3.6%, respectively, in the two companies as on March 31, 2008. It also owns a 7.1% stake in Kalindee Rail Nirman, of which 6.8% was bought for Rs 32 crore in February. Hedge fund inflows are expected to have slowed down significantly, with the stock market turning extremely bearish after the biggest bull run in the Indian stock market that ended in January 2008. Since hedge funds mostly operate as sub-accounts of foreign institutional investors (FIIs), their activity is also reflected in the flows of foreign portfolio investors on Indian bourses. These investors have pulled out funds aggregating Rs 30,000 crore, or $7 billion, of Indian equities while the Sensex crashed 7400 points, or 35%, from its peak of 20873 on January 8.

vijay .gurav @timesgroup .com

The biggest blot in Politics and still NO MAYHEM?

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 08:27:56 EST

The biggest blot in Politics and still NO MAYHEM? - by rajiv

Friends,

The biggest upset in politics , that is , Left deciding to withdraw support to Congress and still market was down just 176 points.

How many thought of market plunging only this much?It went down by 300 points but recovered half in last session.

Hence it becomes now clear that market already discounted the withdrawal of left support as if this was not discounted then market could have tanked by over 1000 points as destabilization of government in center is looked upon as a big negative for market.

I think Left made a tactical error while withdrawing support to UPA as they already were able to garner support from SP and there is no way congress led UPA government can have any problem to go through the much needed Nulcear Deal with USA which will put us in an enviable postion with other countries especially the neighbouring countries.

The SP support is a master stroke of the younger sibling of the Ambani family.While making arrangement of support for UPA led congress government, Anil Ambani has showed his political acumen as well besides been showing how much astute he is when he was given just Khokha of companies when the two brothers departed.

While the elder get tge cream of the co , like IPCL and Ril Ind,where all the oil and gas story was there in it , Anil Ambani got Rcom and Ril Energy(Old Bombay Suburb) Ril Capital.While only Rcom was having some good subscriber , Ril Energy which was Bombay Suburb Electric Supply(BSES), this co was taken over by Dhirubhai Ambani which was mere a power distribution co in some suburbs in Mumbai as Tata Power also was the main player in Mumbai and that too in most of the part.

While BSES was just a power distribution co even when Anil Ambani took over , it has come a long way after the two brothers deprated.According to my view , if it would have been other person and not Anil Ambani then the devision between two brothers would never have happened because while the equal devision work was done by the wellkown figure, Mr K V Kamath the head of ICICI,the ratio that came was 70:30 in favour of Mukesh as it was impossible to divide the co on valuation which Ril Ind possesses which consist of big oil and gas reserves.

And at that time it was decided that Mukesh Ambani would make up that loss of 20% by giving Cauvery Basin Gas at reduced rate but Mukesh is not ready to give anything to Anil more after seeing that AA can over cross him in wealth even without that gas he has to give to AA as a part of this pie for equal devision.Instead he is trying to create all obstacles not to let Anil do whatever he wants to.MA knows that if the MTM deal is done AA will surely be bigger then him.

Even if we take Ril Cap which AA get in his part, Rcap was nothing but a small financal entity and nothing more and was seeing the price of just Rs 150 or so when the two departed but it was AA’s acumen that he made Rcap a financial power house and I think Rcap is going to go places in future as well.Though in financial world , AA do not have much respect but according to my view AA has showed much much more business guile then MA as the later was already sitting on a big business while AA created everything on his own from whatever Khokha which were empty which he got when two departed as can be seen on Rcom use to have some business while Rcap and Ril Energy were just companies and nothing more….which AA got but still AA was confident of himself that he will succeed with this as well.

Well,the SP party support for nuclear deal to congress will act as a great backing for AA’s project as it is a wellknown fact that Amarsingh is very near to AA and so is Amitabh Bachhan’s family.

Well, coming back to market, the small fall of 176 points is the testimony that market is not giving much weightage on this development as this is already discounted.

Only if crude goes up from here we can see more down side otherwise on any good news market will react positively or to say atleast will not succumb to negative news………..

Tata Nano ...in USA......

Sun, 06 Jul 2008 22:34:21 EST

Tata Nano ...in USA...... - by rajiv

Friends,

In context with what I wrote in my last few post the news that I read and has pasted here for fingad...is the testimony of my view that if oil is going to go up and up then who will be buying those big cars which uses lots of Gas and gives a very low Mileage of just 15-20/gallon?While all these cars are available not below $14500, i.e Chevrolette Aveo,the cheapest one then while others come in a category of over $20k......In India , an industrial house named Tata Motors has made a new brand car which cost just $2500 !and the production will start as early as this year.....
It may happen that it may cost $3000-3500 in USA but then also it will become the cheapest in USA......The car is named as "Tata Nano".....and they will also be exported....to foriegn countries.
Days are not far that people will , maybe use 2 cars , one for whole family going out for Picnic or outing and other for going to take for a job as while going to job a car which carries only 4 person is suffice , even one or two persons are enough if that car is going to give big average.
In India the Cheapest car sold by Maruti in collobartion of Suzuki , is Maruti 800 which gives 20km/lit means 44 miles/gallon...an its cost is $5300 for a new brand car which consist of AC.....
Crude bullishness seems to bring windfall gains for Indian Auto makers.....
Rajiv
Made-in-India cars for world

Chanchal Pal Chauhan & Nandini Sen Gupta NEW DELHI

   CALL it the Nano engineering gold rush. Indian engineering skills are suddenly hot property as global auto companies source competence, along with components, for their next-gen models. Sourcing cheaper
components to cut costs for cars sold in India and globally is now de rigeur. The second wave of sourcing focuses on skills, particularly in small cars where India has a core competence. As world markets move to smaller and less fuelhungry vehicles, Big Auto is looking to India for scale and expertise. Maruti Suzuki’s soon-to-debut A-Star has some Indian content, which was played up alongside the Nano’s global outing at the Geneva Motor Show this March. But now Suzuki is planning to step on the gas, outsourcing its costly model development to India for the next-gen small cars.
   “These cars will be developed in India and made in India for the world,” said a Maruti official. “By 2012, that line-up should start rolling out.” Suzuki is focussing on R&D in a big way in India to crank up its engineering pool for the purpose. India will be the small car hub not just in terms of manufacturing but also in terms of product development, the ultimate holy grail in Motown. Other global car majors like Hyundai, Honda and GM are working on both ends of this trend—developing small car models that will be accepted in India and
   other similar markets and using India as a sourcing hub for parts and skills.
   Hyundai, which like Maruti has a big local footprint in manufacturing, is now focussing on R&D in India. The Korean company has set up a $40 million computer-aided design centre in Hyderabad. Says Hyundai Motor India chief HS Lheem: “Our future launches, especially for the compact segment, are being developed keeping in mind the potential of the Indian market.” For GM, the $60-million technical centre in Bangalore will be its powerhouse for developing future technologies and shaping new cars. “We have lined up a design centre, engineering services and an R&D facility at Bangalore. It will conceive future products for India and other emerging markets,” said GM India vice-president P Balendran.

Some answers I try to give......

Fri, 04 Jul 2008 14:49:46 EST

Some answers I try to give...... - by rajiv

Liz says my articles are bringing sweat and tension to readers.But it only happens if there is truth in that post. Yes as Liz wrote except from cutting the cost or expenses one can do nothing…..True , but steps are to be taken from the concerned state and that too in right earnest.The only way for crubing the rampant runup of Crude and Commodities is increasing the margins for speculations in crude and commodities….There is one theory going on that US goverenment itself is giving room to their Fin Insti to speculate in crude and commodities to makeup the loss of Subprime mortagage!So it becomes a matter of debate how long US will let their Fin Insti do this and at what price the bull run will end in Crude….It can go to even $250 and then cooloff and by then it can be too late…Instead of punishing the GMs at the helm of affairs of this big Financial Institution giving them way out is absolutely not taught in any country.When I see big salaries and big commission of this Funds Managers I feel it should be connected with the performance.Perform and get the Bonus or you are gone or stay as it is.I think this is the practice in Western countries and that is also imbibed by Eastern countries .Peform or you are fired.But seems this RULES are only for employees who are smaller ones and not for higher levels place but I think that is the place which is needed to be first taken care of and then others.It seems that Fund Managers and GM or AGM has over made a mess of the situation of this Financial Institutions world .Due to excess money they went on giving loans to them who were not able to pay the instalement .They just wanted the business and the managers were given the targets to fulfill it and if they can’t do then they are fired.So they also went on giving the loan which are now defaulting and is now converted in bad loans which is now known as subprime crisis.

I am just trying to show what can happen and where we can go…..I am no good economist as I am ascience student .I have not read World econmies nor have taken any lecture on it.Yes, I read very much just to be updated on world and Indian Economy…….What I read I analyse and write here and at my blog.

I remember I asked Ziad here at fingad , that why though USA is slowing due to Sub Prime crisis , Dow is not going down.I asked every body then that what can be the real figure of subprime crisis?I remember very clearly that what I asked to Ziad…that, is it the time to buy in US market, that was way back in Nov and Dec 07?When the stocks are going to go down why one can’t buy after it goes down?

Seems my views on US economy is coming true which I wrote here….The subprime issue has become so big that still no one knows how much damage it will create….

So, when US economy is still soaring the wounds of Subprime Mortgage crisis, has to also bear the burden of crude oil runup.

Is US economy has the necessary ingrediants to takeon all these negatives at a time?

I ask everybody here who plays in US stock market and also live there Viz; like Andy,Khanan, Brendon,Anderson, Michael,Bobj,Felicia,Ziad,VS Castle etc who whom I know when I joined this forum….

Is this the time to talk on TV Channels like CNBC etc or Fed and US government need to take concrete step to aver any calamity that can arise and is seen present….

My concerns mainly is , still no one knows what is there in store in Sub Prime Crisis.How much it can damage US eonomy and over that if crude is going to burns holes in US lay people then seems US economy is going in for a disastorious situation…

No one on the earth imagined that Gas prices can go up to $4.5 /gal and milk can be equally costly……With the Minimum wage not going up which is 6.3/hr , how can a person will able to run his/her house…in USA?

It just comes to $ 1000 /mn and if tax are deduced what can be the salary?

Hence there are many things to look at by the elected members of senate other then just debating out what is happening and what should be done……

Medical treatment in America is the costliest in whole world.India do the same treatment at almost 30% or even 10% cost in other cases…..I think the fore most concerns after Crude, Subprime crisis which US has to look upon is Medical treatment….I know certain dieseses are not even covered in Medical premiums.So what is happening at this front no one knows….It is a vicious circle of coietre going on…..vested interest…

I hope some sane policy is taken up by the ministers at the helm of affairs before it becomes too late for US.

Thanks everybody for reading me so long,

Rajiv

Chrysler may be stumbling towards bankruptcy: JPMorgan

Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:18:39 EST

Chrysler may be stumbling towards bankruptcy: JPMorgan - by rajiv

Friends,Regarding my last post here I am again getting news which are looking very very Ominous on US Economy.Here are some excerpts I read today somewhere else...

Read on:

Faced with soaring gas prices, a sputtering economy and a rapid US market shift away from trucks, the US auto industry's weakest player, Chrysler, may have to file for bankruptcy or sell its storied Jeep and Dodge Ram brands as early as next year, JPMorgan said Thursday. JPMorgan auto analyst Himanshu Patel dismissed the possibility of an imminent bankruptcy at GM, saying in a conference call with investors and media that such fears ``are completely overblown.'' The day before, GM shares slid to a 54-year low after Merrill Lynch auto analyst John Murphy wrote in a note to investors that a GM bankruptcy ``is not impossible if the market continues to deteriorate and significant incremental capital is not raised.

Patel said the situation at Chrysler LLC is far more perilous because it has limited assets to raise cash and is more heavily reliant on trucks and on the North American market. Chrysler sales fell 22 percent in the first six months of this year.

Chrysler has had to release little financial information since the private-equity company Cerberus Capital Management LP bought it last year, but Patel estimated the automaker will burn through $4 billion this year and could be forced to file for bankruptcy protection or sell off parts of its business in the second half of 2009 if industry conditions don't improve.

Patel said it's difficult to predict the most likely outcome for Chrysler, but he said South Korean or Chinese automakers covet Chrysler's U.S. distribution network. A bankruptcy filing could be a hit to Cerberus, which invested $6.1 billion in Chrysler as part of its acquisition and also backed a $500 million line of credit that Chrysler tapped last month.

My comments:

What is happening in US,man?Do anyone has clue?Are anyone serious about what is happening in USA?One by one a new skeleton is coming out of cupboard and Ben or anybody do not know from where the next casualty is going to come?

I just wrote an article here previous day about crude prices going bersek and warned that it can make major problem which cannot be sloved even in decades…..

I named GM and Ford which are near to sink but now the name of Chrysler has also surfaced which shows that my concerns cannot be ignored and something should be done here.It is obvious that with Gas soaring at $4.50 and has the capacity of going to even $8 per gallon , when crude can reach $200 and over then who will buy this big cars which we are seeing them on road now?

Now we will take the names of Financial Institution and other co which are almost on a brink of Bankruptcy or already sinked…

1) Bear Stern Ltd ….already closed

2) Lehman Brothers….on the verge of collapse

3) Citi gr……on the verge of collapse

4) General Motors…..on the verge of collapse

5) Ford Motors………on the verge of collapse

6) Merill Lynch……already writing off subprime losses…don’t know when a big news of bankruptcy comes out….

7) UBS already writtenoff big amt…

not talking of Airlines sector......

The point here to emphasis is , no one knows what is going on in this big Financial Institution and when someone will announce another major writeoff and declare that they are over….

People who had put money in IRD and 401 in this finance co , their money are at stake.

I am here in USA since 2^nd Feb 2008 and I have seen here in US stock market that not a single share is available cheap.A turnaround and the stock is over 15 P/E!

If the master of the US economy are having sound sleep then they should haven’t that……This is a Life and Death question for entire USA and the entire world.US itself will sink but will also take the whole world in water drowened…..

How can one say that Dow is going cheap?Dow is down by just 15% while India and China are down by 40 and 50% respectively then which market is cheap is anybodies guess….It is not that valuations are still high….There the prices have corrected more.. then enough and that is because of constant selling by Hedge funds in Indian market.I have learnt that Hedge funds sold Rs 3100 cr means in last 2 days in India.

India with crude and commodities bull run can slow down a bit , say like 7.5% GDP but it will be way ahead of US which will have already a negative growth and other Europians economy which are growing at around 1-2% rate…..

I still stand with my view that India and China are the two best destination for overseas investors to look at and this is the best time to invest in both the economies……

Ofcourse to find out the sectors and stocks for great , good and safe return one must have some experienced player who knows the Indian market since long and able to understand the economy.

Time for Uncle Sam to think and act fast...

Wed, 02 Jul 2008 18:20:58 EST

Time for Uncle Sam to think and act fast... - by rajiv

Friends,

I am surprised to see how USA is still ready to believe that Crude is not going on speculation…When the crude demand has risen by just 1% in last year or so, how can Crude rise 40% in last 3 months….

It is now clear that Oil Speculation is on rampage without demand out stripping supply.

Lots of money has gone in for speculations and more money is still coming in as targets are given high…

The biggies Like Goldman sachs etc have big position in Crude basket and now they would like to cut their long position….and hence they are giving high target so that they can sell and they can come out of their longs with BIG profits…

When a US Senate spokeman says that there is no speculation in crude I was surprised to read that.

If crude is going to go up and up to $200 level and also surpass it then what will happen to US Airlines?All the Airlines will have to be closed as with such a high rate of Air Fares who will travel in those Airlines?What will happen to the World biggest economy?That is US?

The price of Milk is more now then the price of 1 gallon Gas….That is the anamoly in USA .The government is not even increasing the minumum rate per hr when compared with inflations, Gas price rise, Milk price rise etc….The person who is living on pay is finding difficult to live in such a scenario……

Crude has to come down otherwise it will take world back to 1929 recession.The situation then, no one knows what happened then…and hence will have catastrophe effect world over.The way Chinese market and Indian market are reacting is just a mayhem, mayhem everyday…..China is down 52% and India is down by 40% and still Citi gr and Lehman br says that India is still overvalued……They have first to look for their burning house and try to save investors money put in their MF’s.Both had lost their credibility.Lehman br is on brink of collapse and trying to garner funds from Gulf countries to survive.No wonder both are selling heavily in Indian Markets….

My first question goes to them who feels that Crude runup is not a speculation….

Has the demand went up by 40% in last 3-4 months?If the answer is no then Oil shouldn’t have gone up by 40% and if that is the case then Oil recent runup is speculation.It is just a case of more money chasing crude and other commodities.

If India and China are slowing down, how will one be able to justify the crude and commodoities runup?If the demand are slowing then how can Demand oiutstirp supply ?

Sooner or later the Crude is going to tank and tank in a big way.It can go even below $100 to around $80 level…..

The financial houses like Goldman, Merill Lynch, etc are ready with a call of crude touching $200 and even more.I am reading all these, but can anyone tell me what will happen at Crude $200 and over?World will be in such a BIG recession that it will take decades to come out of it.According to my view, Crude and commodities are going up only because of excess liquidity and all the longs are to be cut at any given time…..

I am waiting for that D day…..all the world funds has started pouring money in Crude and commodities because return on equites has become negative…..

I think it can be only USA who can do something in this speculation…….as the commodities market in USA needs very less margin to trade in crude and commodities.And it US has to that otherwise their own economy will get derailed in such a bad way that Fed or Ben will find difficult to save it from catastrophic effect.Their Autos co are already in death bed as we see GM and ford are at multiyear low price.

If Gas is going to be available at $4.5 and then at $6 and $8 then who is going to buy these big cars which is comsuming big gas and givin a milage of just 20 mile per gallon?

If Fuel prices will go on up and up what will be the price of Air Travel tickets?It is already burning the pockets of companies where their employees has to travel frequently.What will be their profit?Aree…..they will be in a huge huge loss and they will be closed.

I think that with subprime crisis still lingering high on the economy of USA, forecloser are still coming up in big way,no way to come out from there, I think US can’t afford to have Gas at $ 4.5/gallon…..these will blow as a death knelt to US economy….

I think it is high time that Mr Prez take a sane decision to stop crude speculation as early a possible…….

Surprised to see that no one is bearish on Crude

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 09:10:24 EST

Surprised to see that no one is bearish on Crude - by rajiv

Friends,

I am surprised to see that no one is bearish on Crude…..why? Because no one play in crude? People become bearish only when one is there in the market?

Why can’t there be reaction in speculation of Crude and other commodities? Because we wants stocks cheaper?

Crude has given 40% return in just 5 months and that can be the fastest return in crude history…I don’t know it has happened in past.

We use to discuss that stocks are running up ahead of fundamentals and hence it is speculation that they are going up….so they will come down..

Now I don’t think that oil demands has gone so much up in last 5 months that crude can go from $100 to $140!Just think what I mean to say.The oil demand has risen by 40% in last 5 months and hence the runup of 40% in crude….Is that possible?When USA is bleeding whuich is the biggest consumer of world oil, which is 30% of the total oil produced, how can demand rise so much.Indian economy has slowed down according to figures ,China is raising the int rate to cooloff their economy then how can the demand rise so much?

Is anyone here to buy this theory that demand has rose that much and hence crude is rising?If the answer is no then why we are still not bearish on crude?Does the answer lies somewhere else?Like we wants to bring Sensex to back 8000 level so that we can buy stocks at the cheapest valuation and again FII’s start buying at that level at P/E 10 or below? Aren’t we playing in the hands of Bears like Shankar Sharma while not thinking of crude crash…..I have absolutely no doubt that crude is only going up due to speculation which I wrote here much earlier maybe then anyone else has written.

Do we again wants to let FII’s buy our stocks at the cheapest rate and let them sell in profit and again annihilate our market next tine?

It is obvious that this bearish phase in our stock market is more a reaction of crude running up and US subprime issue.Edven though some so called economics GURUS(likes…Mark Faber, Jim Rogers etc) are spelling Dooms day for US economy ,the wisest person in world stocks market is buying stocks?Warren Buffet has increased his stake in Kraft Foods and also took stake in Wringly Products and even funded to buy stake to someone else……So if USA economy is going in doldrums and further downside is there then why this Master is buying stocks? Can’t he buy them cheaper at later stage ? Why ? Can anyone answer me this puzzle that this legend is not waiting for further down side?

I think the answer lies here only……

Flex Foods Ltd.........cmp...Rs 26/-

Fri, 02 May 2008 23:17:18 EST

Flex Foods Ltd.........cmp...Rs 26/- - by rajiv

Flex Foods Ltd.........

Flex Foods Ltd:
Code:523672
FV:10
This I am writing because someone asked me whether my call which I gave at mmb at Rs 23/-....is Flex Ind or not?
I get surprised to see someone asking me about co name when I have written very clearly the name......But seems they are not ready to do any work....like going to bse site and write the first 3 letters of co and find it out which co is that......
Where I am more surprised is, it is their own money they are investing and still they do not bother to look at the bsesite......I don't say that one should be able to find everything as much as I can do but the primary things which anyone can do should be done atleast....

OK,I am again posting the text which I wrote at mmb while giving a buy call......
.and Flex Food Ltd has come out with excellent results for Mar 2008.The sales has increased by just 13% but the NP has increaed by 49% , and that means the profit margin has increased.
Go to bse site and check it.
I am just making you all stand on your legs....do it......

Read on:

Friends,I am giving a buy call on Flex Foods Ltd a Uflex Ltd gr co(old Flex Ltd)....Flex Foods Ltd. is going in for expansion plan for natural, herbal and formulated products & their derivatives and biotechnology.
Originally they are in Vacuum Freeze Dried, Air-Dried, Frozen and IQF (Individually Quick Frozen) product range of mushrooms, herbs, spices and fruits / vegetables, meeting strict quality & hygiene standards.The sales has almost remained stagnant at Rs 9 cr for the Sep qr ended which was Rs 8.6 cr last sep 06.. but the NP has gone up considerably from just Rs. 79 lacs to Rs.1.38 c in this sep qr...The NPM(Net profit margin) aslo has increased from...9% to over 15%....Promoters hold over 59 % stake which shows the confidence of promoters in their co..
1)The co . has gone for expansion programme at Dehradun at the cost of Rs.28 cr inMar 2005, for setting up Air dried (Dehydrated) and Frozen (Individually Quick Frozen) facilities for Mushrooms, Herbs, Fruits & Vegetables..etc... and the same is seen in the increase in the profibility.....

2)Flex Foods Ltd is also having a health care division , in Noida,which will also contribute in sales and profit later in future....

Summary:Looking at the above parametres it seems that Flex Foods Ltd is on a high growth path and hence can be another dark horse in times to come....Currently Flex Foods Ltd is quoted at Rs 23 at BSE and almost 100% stocks is going in delivary which also signals that someone is accumalating Flex Foods Ltd.....

Rajeev

Flex Foods Ltd.........cmp....Rs 26/-............

Fri, 02 May 2008 23:14:49 EST

Flex Foods Ltd.........cmp....Rs 26/-............ - by rajiv

Flex Foods Ltd.........

Written at my blog

Nifty at 5150! ........................( India)

Fri, 02 May 2008 23:09:42 EST

Nifty at 5150! ........................( India) - by rajiv

Nifty closed above 5150.....!

Friends,
Many expert were sceptic about Nifty closing over 5150 and there we are.....
Nifty not only closed above 5150 but also gave a weekly close to show the strength.
I would now like to see what the Chart Analyst speak about the nifty and Sensex? Their Achilles Hills is 5150 and that is done and that too on a weekly base.....now what next ?
I have very clearly written in my last two post that we can see 19,000 by May/June....I think we are nearing that.Though we have a long way to go.....
Well,US market is showing enormous strength and Dow has crossed 13,000 today on the news that Jobs fall is less then expected.
I still feel that US economy will be out of woods by second half.
I remember I gave a call on JaySynth Dye stuff at mmb some year and half back at Rs 12 and it immidiately went on to touch Rs 20/- and thereafter it retraced back to below Rs 10 level.Maybe the low was Rs 7/-.....
Some who bought asked me then whether to hold or sell in a loss.Well,I told to hold may be those who have no confident must have sold.
But after remaining in hibernation for almost over a year, Jaysynth Dyestuff post excellent results with an quaterly eps of 2.8 and that too on 1 paidup.
Well, this is what one can get when one keep patience.I think Jaysynth Dyestuff can touch Rs 50 within a year.This is my view and do not fall as a BUY CALL.........But I will not be surprised if someone like Muder Patheriya can come out with a buy call....This is my projection.
If anyone wants to buy then just go to bse site.See the results , SHP etc ...do due diligence and then buy......if at all one wants to do it.
Well, coming back to the market,I think that if US market will go up , Dollar will appreciate then there is no reason why our market will not cross it's previous high....Well,if dollar will appreciate then the commodities price will also come down and that includes OIL,IRON ORE.....and commodities......

Indian stock market maturing?

Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:46:40 EST

Indian stock market maturing? - by rajiv

You know who said this?
“ When we were young kids growing up in
America, we were told to eat our vegetables at
dinner and not leave them. Mothers said, think of
the starving children in India and finish the
dinner.”
And now I tell my children: 'Finish your
homework. Think of the children in India who
would make you starve, if you don't?'
THE WORLD IS FLAT
- BY THOMAS FRIEDMAN

Market maturing?

It is real nice to see that today market didn't mimic DOW.
Our market is coming out of the hoodoo of DOW movement and the achilles hills for our market was it use to mimic down movement and not the upside of the Dow.But I like this movement.It says , one can't take clue from overseas market and dump the stocks.Otherwise what people use to do was , just see how Dow has fared previous night and short sell heavily in Indian market and market will oblige them veery gleefully as if Dow was to go up next day, our market do not use to go up and hence BEARS use to have field day as they have not to worry about Dow going up as Sensex would not go up if Dow goes up.
Now the scenario has changed.
The present new trend says that Indian market will not go down if Dow goes down.Indian market will see if the fall is real.Means there is really big damage in US economy as it has been seen that Dow tanks one day and goes up double next day.Bulls have seen that Bears breaks the market when Dow goes down but market do not come up when Dow goes up.Bears use to sell saying US economy is under recession and India will be affected but market do not com up on Dow rally.So now the rein of the Indian market is in the hand of Bulls who saw the real contrast and see the anamoly that Bears are taking undue liberty to break the market.
More over Bulls got the solace that individual stocks has fallen down so low , by over 50-60% that there was actually no room to further go down and the only way was to go up..... as almost all stocks are available at 5-6-7 P/E.......
So henceforth, our market will not try to mimick Dow movement.But will wait for more bad news for 3-4 days and if Dow still go down for more days may Sensex go down.But if US economy bounceback then just imagine what can happen and according to me chances are great in second half that US economy can bounce back .
It is the dollar value that is depreciating that Oil/gas is costlier in USA which is $3.3/gallon.....but as soon as Dollar aprreciate Gas prices will come down and so will Inflation in US because it is obvious that as soon as the Gas price will come down, consumer goods price etc will also come down and inflation will be tamed.
No wonder Warren Bufffet is having no anxiety on US economy.I am having a bullish stance for US economy.I again reiterate that 16,000 Dow is possible by Dec 2008!Let us keep the fingures crossed.

As I have written in my last post, 19k we can see in May/June......i.e. Sensex...

Written at my blog

SREI Infra.............a company worth looking at........ cmp 143.50......only!

Mon, 14 Apr 2008 19:12:14 EST

SREI Infra.............a company worth looking at........ cmp 143.50......only! - by rajiv

SREI Infra......is having a very big eq but it has many subsidiaries....and they seems to be faring extremly well...I am tracking Srei since many years...but since last year or so I thought it is a wonderful co. to discuss here.....

Let us see some of its updates:

Quipo Oil & Gas to acquire 8 rigs for $140 million

Quipo Oil & Gas is in the process of acquiring eight on-land rigs, for which it will spend about $140 million. Quipo Oil and Gas is a subsidiary of infrastructure equipment rental company Quipo Infrastructure Equipment, promoted by SREI Infrastructure Finance. (its means unlocking value in Srei Infra anytime)

Quipo Oil & Gas owns one rig. It had drilled 11 wells at Cairn India’s oilfield in Rajasthan’s Barmer district in 2005. The company is also deploying five onshore rigs through Russian-Indian Drilling Oil Company, a 50:50 joint venture with Russia’s Oil Technologies Overseas.

An on-land rig typically costs about $17-18 million (about Rs 70 crore).

“Of the eight new rigs, three will be acquired by Quipo, while our Russian joint venture will acquire five. Of the three rigs we will get directly, one will come in September and the other two will arrive by January,” said Quipo Oil & Gas Managing Director S K Mehta.

The joint venture company, which will provide drilling services in Russia and India, will get its five rigs by December-January.

There is a shortage of rigs across the world and its impact is being felt in India as well. Reliance Industries’ and ONGC’s drilling commitments in offshore areas have been delayed due to this shortage.

The waiting period for offshore rigs is almost five years and that for onshore rigs a lot lesser at about 8 months.

Quipo has undertaken on-land drilling with the one rig it has. “Considering that there is so much activity in offshore basins, and if the opportunity arises, we will definitely acquire offshore rigs as well,” Mehta said. The rig, named Quipo1, recently completed drilling at ONGC’s coal bed methane block in Gujarat, and is headed for Australia on a drilling job at a block owned by Oilex.

Quipo has targeted an increase in revenue from the current Rs 10 crore to about Rs 70 crore, mainly by increasing operations through integrated drilling services. Integrated drilling services include rig facilities as well as engineering and manpower support for operation of the rigs.

Quipo also plans to go public soon. “We would definitely like to go public at some point of time. We will wait for the right time to do that,” Mehta said.

Now the latest:

Quippo to invest $3 bn in telecom biz:

Srei Group's Quippo Telecom Infrastructure Ltd (QTIL) today said it plans to invest $3 billion in 2008-09 to ramp up its telecom infrastructure business.The company is planning to invest 3 billion dollars to grow both organically and inorganically, QTIL Managing Director Arun Kapur told PTI.Besides, the company is also in talks with Tata Teleservices to buy its telecom tower business."We are in an advanced stage of negotiation with Tata Teleservices and the deal is expected to be concluded by next month, he added.However, he declined to divulge the financial details of the proposed deal.Tata Telecom service provider is examining hiving off a part stake of its tower business portfolio."Consolidation is the order of the day. This is a capital -intensive industry. In this scenario consolidation is going to be the name of the game," he added.Ruias-led Essar group is also understood to be in talks with Quippo for a possible merger of its telecom tower business arm Essar Telecom Infrastructure Pvt Ltd.However, Kapur declined to comment on the issue.Quippo has about 4,500 towers and plans to increase this to 10,000 by March 2009.The company also plans to venture into active infrastructure sharing."We are in talks with all the new players who are receiving spectrum such as Datacom, Bycell, Shyam for active infrastructure sharing," he added.The government had recently allowed sharing of active infrastructure, which includes sharing of antenna, feeder cable, Node B, Radio Access Network and transmission system by telecom service providers, enabling them to cut costs in network roll-out and pass on the savings to consumers by way of cheaper tariffs.

My commnets:

Looking at the Quippo to invest $3 bn in telecom and Oil Rigs.....seems Srei Infra is going at a song....52 week high/low are 292 and 49.....and CMP is 143.50.......

No wonder Institution holds 49% and promoters hold 25%.......

Just go to the BSE site and see the SHP.........

Well,I hope u all will look at the results as well and will not end up looking on Share Holding Pattern(SHP).....which I told to do......

Looking at the results , Interest payment is as big as 100 cr/qr means imagine what can happen to this co if Interest payout is trimmed?100 cr int payment per quater means whole eq is given out for Int payment....means 10 eps one can add per quater.....

I hope I have not to write more......My readers are more expert then me to understand what all these means....

I am again writing this is not a buy call.....I have just brought this stock in lime light.....take your own decision .......buy at your comfort level..........

Written at my blog.......